The stock of external debt at end-March 2020 as well as revised data for earlier quarters are set out in Statements I (old format) and II (IMF format)1. The major developments relating to India’s external debt as at end-March 2020 are presented below.
Highlights
At end-March 2020, India’s external debt was placed at US$ 558.5 billion, recording an increase of US$ 15.4 billion over its level at end-March 2019 (Table 1).
Valuation gains due to the appreciation of the US dollar vis-à-vis Indian rupee and other major currencies were placed at US$ 16.6 billion. Excluding the valuation effect, the increase in external debt would have been US$ 32.0 billion instead of US$ 15.4 billion at end-March 2020 over end-March 2019.
Commercial borrowings remained the largest component of external debt, with a share of 39.4 per cent, followed by non-resident deposits (23.4 per cent) and short-term trade credit (18.2 per cent).
At end-March 2020, long-term debt (with original maturity of above one year) was placed at US$ 451.7 billion, recording an increase of US$ 17.0 billion over its level at end-March 2019.
The share of short-term debt (with original maturity of up to one year) in total external debt declined to 19.1 per cent at end-March 2020 from 20.0 per cent at end-March 2019; the ratio of short-term debt (original maturity) to foreign exchange reserves declined to 22.4 per cent at end-March 2020 (26.3 per cent at end-March 2019).
Short-term debt on residual maturity basis (i.e., debt obligations that include long-term debt by original maturity falling due over the next twelve months and short-term debt by original maturity) constituted 42.4 per cent of total external debt at end-March 2020 (43.4 per cent at end-March 2019) and stood at 49.5 per cent of foreign exchange reserves (57.0 per cent at end-March 2019) (Table 2).
US dollar denominated debt continued to be the largest component of India’s external debt, with a share of 53.7 per cent at end-March 2020, followed by the Indian rupee (31.9 per cent), yen (5.6 per cent), SDR (4.5 per cent) and the euro (3.5 per cent).
The borrower-wise classification shows that the outstanding debt of general government decreased, while that of non-government sector increased at end-March 2020 (Table 3).
The share of outstanding debt of nonfinancial corporations in total external debt was the highest at 42.0 per cent, followed by deposit-taking corporations (except the central bank) (28.3 per cent), general government (18.1 per cent) and other financial corporations (7.5 per cent).
The instrument-wise classification shows that the loans were the largest component of external debt, with a share of 34.8 per cent, followed by currency and deposits (24.0 per cent), trade credit and advances (18.7 per cent) and debt securities (17.4 per cent).
Debt service (principal repayments plus interest payments) increased marginally to 6.5 per cent of current receipts at end-March 2020 as compared with 6.4 per cent at end-March 2019, reflecting higher interest payments on commercial borrowings and lower current receipts (Table 4).
| Table 1: External Debt – Outstanding and Variation | |||||||
| (US$ billion) | |||||||
| Component | Outstanding as at end of March | Absolute variation | Percentage variation | ||||
| 2018 R | 2019 PR | 2020 P | Mar-19 over Mar-18 | Mar-20 over Mar-19 | Mar-19 over Mar-18 | Mar-20 over Mar-19 | |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| 1. Multilateral | 57.2 | 57.5 | 60.0 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 4.3 |
| 2. Bilateral | 25.4 | 25.6 | 27.2 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 6.0 |
| 3. IMF | 5.8 | 5.5 | 5.4 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -4.5 | -1.7 |
| 4. Trade Credit | 9.5 | 7.9 | 7.2 | -1.5 | -0.8 | -16.3 | -9.5 |
| 5. Commercial Borrowings | 201.8 | 206.6 | 220.3 | 4.8 | 13.8 | 2.4 | 6.7 |
| 6. Non-resident Deposits | 126.2 | 130.4 | 130.6 | 4.2 | 0.2 | 3.4 | 0.1 |
| 7. Rupee Debt | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -4.5 | -11.7 |
| 8. Short-term Debt | 102.2 | 108.4 | 106.9 | 6.2 | -1.5 | 6.1 | -1.4 |
| Of which: | |||||||
| Short-term trade credit | 100.4 | 102.4 | 101.4 | 2.0 | -1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| Total Debt | 529.3 | 543.1 | 558.5 | 13.8 | 15.4 | 2.6 | 2.8 |
| Memo Items: | |||||||
| A. Long-term Debt (original maturity)@ | 427.1 | 434.7 | 451.7 | 7.6 | 17.0 | 1.8 | 3.9 |
| B. Short-term Debt (original maturity)# | 102.2 | 108.4 | 106.9 | 6.2 | -1.5 | 6.1 | -1.4 |
| R: Revised. PR: Partially Revised. P: Provisional. | |||||||
| @: Debt with original maturity of above one year. | |||||||
| #: Debt with original maturity of up to one year. | |||||||
| Table 2: Residual Maturity of External Debt Outstanding as at End-March 2020 | |||||
| (US$ billion) | |||||
| Component | Short-term up to one year** | Long-term | Total (2 to 5) |
||
| 1 to 2 years | 2 to 3 years | More than 3 years | |||
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
| 1. Sovereign Debt (long-term)$ | 5.5 | 7.4 | 8.2 | 79.5 | 100.6 |
| 2. Commercial Borrowings# | 34.7 | 25.2 | 30.6 | 130.1 | 220.5 |
| 3. Non-resident deposits {(i)+(ii)+(iii)} | 89.7 | 21.3 | 11.0 | 8.7 | 130.6 |
| (i) FCNR(B) | 15.4 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 24.2 |
| (ii) NR(E)RA | 60.4 | 16.4 | 7.7 | 5.8 | 90.4 |
| (iii) NRO | 13.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 16.0 |
| 4. Short-term Debt* (original maturity) | 106.9 | 106.9 | |||
| Total (1 to 4) | 236.7 | 53.9 | 49.7 | 218.2 | 558.5 |
| Memo Items: | |||||
| Short-term Debt (residual maturity) as per cent of Total External Debt | 42.4 | ||||
| Short-term Debt (residual maturity) as per cent of Reserves | 49.5 | ||||
| $: Inclusive of FPI investments in government securities. | |||||
| #: Commercial Borrowings are inclusive of trade credit, FPI investments in corporate debt instruments and a portion of non-government multilateral and bilateral borrowings and therefore may not tally with the figures provided in other tables under original maturity. | |||||
| *: Also includes FPI investments in security receipts issued by Asset Reconstruction Companies (ARCs) under the extant corporate debt limits. | |||||
| **: Short-term debt by residual maturity comprises long-term debt by original maturity falling due over the next twelve months and short-term debt by original maturity. | |||||
| Table 3: Government and Non-Government External Debt | ||||
| (US$ billion) | ||||
| Component | End-March | |||
| 2017 | 2018 R | 2019 PR | 2020 P | |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| A. Sovereign Debt (I+II) | 95.9 | 111.9 | 103.8 | 100.9 |
| (As percentage of GDP) | 4.0 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 3.7 |
| I. External Debt on Government Account under External Assistance | 62.8 | 68.6 | 68.8 | 72.7 |
| II. Other Government External Debt@ | 33.1 | 43.4 | 35.0 | 28.1 |
| B. Non-Government Debt# | 375.1 | 417.3 | 439.3 | 457.7 |
| (As percentage of GDP) | 15.8 | 15.9 | 16.0 | 16.9 |
| C. Total External Debt (A+B) | 471.0 | 529.3 | 543.1 | 558.5 |
| (As percentage of GDP) | 19.8 | 20.1 | 19.8 | 20.6 |
| R: Revised. PR: Partially Revised. P: Provisional. | ||||
| @: Other government external debt includes defence debt, investment in Treasury Bills/government securities by FPIs, foreign central banks and international institutions, and IMF. | ||||
| #: Includes external debt of Monetary Authority. | ||||
| Table 4: India’s Key External Debt Indicators | |||||||
| (Per cent, unless indicated otherwise) | |||||||
| End-March | External Debt (US$ billion) |
Ratio of External Debt to GDP | Debt Service Ratio | Ratio of Foreign Exchange Reserves to Total Debt | Ratio of Concessional Debt to Total Debt | Ratio of Short-term Debt to Foreign Exchange Reserves | Ratio of Short-term Debt (original maturity) to Total Debt |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| 1991 | 83.8 | 28.3 | 35.3 | 7.0 | 45.9 | 146.5 | 10.2 |
| 1996 | 93.7 | 26.6 | 26.2 | 23.1 | 44.7 | 23.2 | 5.4 |
| 2001 | 101.3 | 22.1 | 16.6 | 41.7 | 35.4 | 8.6 | 3.6 |
| 2006 | 139.1 | 17.1 | 10.1# | 109.0 | 28.4 | 12.9 | 14.0 |
| 2007 | 172.4 | 17.7 | 4.7 | 115.6 | 23.0 | 14.1 | 16.3 |
| 2008 | 224.4 | 18.3 | 4.8 | 138.0 | 19.7 | 14.8 | 20.4 |
| 2009 | 224.5 | 20.7 | 4.4 | 112.2 | 18.7 | 17.2 | 19.3 |
| 2010 | 260.9 | 18.5 | 5.8 | 106.9 | 16.8 | 18.8 | 20.1 |
| 2011 | 317.9 | 18.6 | 4.4 | 95.9 | 14.9 | 21.3 | 20.4 |
| 2012 | 360.8 | 21.1 | 6.0 | 81.6 | 13.3 | 26.6 | 21.7 |
| 2013 | 409.4 | 22.4 | 5.9 | 71.3 | 11.1 | 33.1 | 23.6 |
| 2014 | 446.2 | 23.9 | 5.9 | 68.2 | 10.4 | 30.1 | 20.5 |
| 2015 | 474.7 | 23.8 | 7.6 | 72.0 | 8.8 | 25.0 | 18.0 |
| 2016 | 484.8 | 23.4 | 8.8 | 74.3 | 9.0 | 23.2 | 17.2 |
| 2017 | 471.0 | 19.8 | 8.3 | 78.5 | 9.4 | 23.8 | 18.7 |
| 2018 R | 529.3 | 20.1 | 7.5 | 80.2 | 9.1 | 24.1 | 19.3 |
| 2019 PR | 543.1 | 19.8 | 6.4 | 76.0 | 8.7 | 26.3 | 20.0 |
| 2020 P | 558.5 | 20.6 | 6.5 | 85.5 | 8.6 | 22.4 | 19.1 |
| R: Revised. PR: Partially Revised. P: Provisional. | |||||||
| #: works out to 6.3 per cent with the exclusion of India Millennium Deposits (IMDs) repayments of US$ 7.1 billion and pre-payment of external debt of US$ 23.5 million. | |||||||
(Yogesh Dayal)
Chief General Manager
Press Release: 2019-2020/2570
1 The concepts set out in the IMF’s 2013 External Debt Statistics (EDS) Guide are harmonized with those of the System of National Accounts (SNA) 2008 and the sixth edition of the IMF’s Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6) published in 2009.
SOURCE: RBI
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