India’s long-term low-carbon development strategy-2022

India’s long-term low-carbon development strategy-2022

Global warming is a global collective action problem. Its solution, therefore, lies in international cooperation and multilateral processes which are embodied in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). India is firmly committed to strengthening the efforts to combat global warming to the UNFCCC on the basis of equity and the CBDR-RC as laid down in the Climate Convention.

Climate science has clearly established that global surface temperature increase is directly proportional
to cumulative emissions and limiting the rise in global temperatures requires global GHG emissions to
be kept within a specific limit referred to as the global carbon budget. A disproportionately large part of
the global carbon budget has been used by developed countries. The world, from 2020, has a remaining
carbon budget of 500 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide (GtCO2), to have a 50% probability of limiting global
warming to 1.5°C relative to pre-industrial levels and a remaining carbon budget of 1350 GtCO2
to have a 50% probability of limiting global warming to an increase of 2oC (IPCC, 2021).

India’s long-term low-carbon development strategy

Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change, Government of India 2022.

Summary

Introduction

India is currently one of the fastest growing economies in the world, home to almost one-sixth of humanity. Its growth momentum is an integral part of global development and is essential to meeting the world’s sustainable development goals. A number of challenges confront India’s development agenda including that of climate change. India’s contribution to global warming is minimal. Nevertheless, India is committed to combating climate change, by making development choices that ensure growth and development of the economy along low carbon pathways towards net-zero by 2070. Recognizing that climate change is a global collective action problem, India is committed to addressing the challenge with firm adherence to multilateralism based on equity and the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities (CBDR-RC), as enshrined in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

Based on climate science, limiting global cumulative emissions within the global carbon budget is the key to limiting global temperature rise. India maintains that operationalizing the principle of equity and climate justice requires that this budget be equitably shared among all countries and used responsibly. Historical and future responsibility of countries is to be framed in terms of limiting their cumulative emissions within their fair share of this budget. The key principle that informs India’s climate policy, therefore, is to pursue its development goals according to national circumstances while keeping within its
fair share of the global carbon budget.

Parties agreed, under Article 4.19 of the Paris Agreement under the UNFCCC “to strive to formulate
and communicate long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies (LT-LEDS), mindful of
Article 2 taking into account their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities,
in the light of different national circumstances.” Accordingly, in this document India lays out its approach
to its low-carbon development pathway, taking note of the development challenges facing it in the context of climate change and cognizant of its historical traditions and culture that seeks harmony and balance between human society and nature. India’s LT-LEDS draws on a review of available quantitative and analytical studies, syntheses of official and academic materials, and the inputs of seven Task Groups
established to deliberate on different dimensions of the LT-LEDS for India.

India’s approach to low-carbon development

India’s approach is based on the following four key considerations that underpin its long-term low-carbon development strategy:

1-India has contributed little to global warming

The Summary for Policy Makers (SPM) of the Working Group III contribution to the Sixth Assessment
Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [2022] has noted clearly that
the contribution of entire Southern Asia is only about 4% of historical cumulative net anthropogenic
emissions between 1850 and 2019, even though the region includes almost 24% of the global population.
North America and Europe alone have contributed almost 10 times more to global cumulative emissions
in this period, though they have only ~13% of the global population.

India’s historical contribution to cumulative global GHG emissions is therefore minuscule despite having
a share of ~17% of the world’s population. India’s per capita annual emissions are about a third of the
global average. From a global carbon equity perspective, India is justified in seeking that developed countries undertake early net-zero, well before 2050, by investing heavily in negative emissions, and
providing adequate climate finance, technology transfer and capacity building support.

2-India has significant energy needs for its development

Energy is essential to erasing India’s development deficits and meeting its developmental needs and
aspirations. India’s annual primary energy consumption per capita in 2019 was 28.7 gigajoules (GJ),
considerably lower than both developed and developing country peers. Energy is needed for social
development, to support India’s demographic transition and consequent job creation needs, its agrarian
and urban transition, and infrastructure development. India is actively pursuing energy efficiency as one
of the key means of promoting low-carbon development. While the extent of decoupling of emissions
from growth seen in developed countries is still insufficient in terms of the ambitious emissions reduction
required by their historical and current responsibility, India’s continued effort at increasing decoupling of
emissions from growth proceeds, in contrast, from an already low baseline of emissions.

3-India is committed to pursuing low-carbon strategies for development and is actively pursuing
them, as per national circumstances

India’s mitigation efforts are driven not just by climate-specific policies, but also by broader development
choices. India seeks to identify and explore opportunities to shift to low-carbon development pathways,
while ensuring adequate access to household energy, energy security, and energy for the development of all sectors of the economy. Beginning in 2008 with the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC),
the scope for co-benefits between climate and development is recognized by India, while also being
mindful of the trade-offs and corresponding costs.

The social and transaction costs of making a low-carbon transition are considerable. While India will
pursue low-carbon growth and development strategies, this transition will be in accordance with national
circumstances and at a pace and scale that is nationally determined, without compromising development
futures. Consequently, the need for climate finance for India’s low-carbon transition is considerable.
The global and domestic context, including equity and the need for sustainable development, will guide
India’s national objectives in the rational utilization of fossil fuel resources, with due regard to India’s
energy security. India’s per capita consumption of coal, its leading natural fossil fuel resource, when
normalized for coal quality, was half the world average in 2019 and its natural gas consumption was 30-
50 times lower than many OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) countries.
Further, global oil and gas emissions are 25% higher than coal emissions, whereas, for India, coal is its
main fossil fuel resource

4-India needs to build climate resilience

India has a diverse geography that encompasses a wide range of ecosystems, from mountains to deserts,
from inland to coastal areas, and from plains to jungles, and is vulnerable to impacts of climate change.
Adaptation measures and building resilience to potential climate impacts are necessary to maintain
India’s development gains and human development outcomes and sustain its growth and development.

India’s climate actions

India is already making considerable efforts at undertaking climate actions across its entire economy.
India also has a long tradition of reverence and respect for Nature that provides broad societal support
for India’s pro-active climate policies and actions. India has achieved its pre-2020 voluntary contributions
and its policies and actions are acknowledged to be compatible with the 2o C warming target of the Paris Agreement. India has consistently made ambitious commitments at the UNFCCC, the key multilateral
forum for climate change, and under the Paris Agreement, and has a strong track record of meeting these
commitments, despite its minimal responsibility. Building upon Hon’ble Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s
Panchamrit (five nectar elements) pledges at the 26th Conference of Parties (COP26) of the UNFCCC in
Glasgow, including the target of net-zero emissions by 2070, India updated its NDC in August 2022 as
follows:

i. Meet 50% of India’s cumulative electric power installed capacity from non-fossil sources by 2030.
ii. Reduce the emission intensity of GDP by 45% below 2005 levels by 2030.
iii. Put forward and further propagate a healthy and sustainable way of living based on the traditions and values of conservation and moderation, including through a mass movement for LiFE – Lifestyle
for Environment as a key to combating climate change.

ES2. Strategic Low-Emissions Development Transitions

India’s LT-LEDS rests on seven key transitions to low-carbon development pathways. These transitions to low-carbon development pathways have already been initiated through various significant and specific policies, programmes, and initiatives. However, India’s efforts so far have been overwhelmingly undertaken with its own resources. India’s current climate actions are comprehensive, covering the entire economy, keeping in view India’s development imperatives.

The key elements that constitute each proposed low-carbon development transition are first summarised. In subsequent sections, the domestic and international contexts, current policies and targets and elaboration of the long-term low-emissions development strategies follow. The relevant literature has been taken into account in elaborating the elements of these low-carbon development transitions, including available modelling studies. The output of global models cannot be readily applied to India for the lack of clarity on equity, climate justice and common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities in their assumptions and structure. Various stakeholders, especially academia, are developing the necessary techniques and models with Government support and facilitation, and India is cognizant of the need for the appropriate modelling results.

Elements of Long-term Low-Emissions Development Strategies

Low carbon development of electricity systems consistent with development

Growth in the electricity sector is critical for enabling industrial expansion, enhanced employment and
incomes, and achievement of Aatmanirbhar Bharat (Self Reliant India). Low carbon options are to be
assessed in the context of inclusive growth and expansion needed in the sector.

• Expanding renewables and strengthening the grid
• Exploring and/or supporting other low carbon technologies
• Focusing on demand-side management
• Rational utilization of fossil fuel resources, with due regard to energy security
• Assessing enablers for low carbon development
• Determining green taxonomy and optimum energy mix (complementing national development scenarios)

ES2.1 Low Carbon Development of Electricity Systems Consistent with Enhanced Development Benefits

Domestic and International Context

India’s average per capita electricity consumption from utilities alone, ~800 kWh in 2020, is only about a fourth of the global average. The overall per-capita consumption of electricity for the year 2021-22 was 1255 kWh. Across sectors, the supply of electricity in India will grow to support domestic, agricultural, industrial, and other uses. India recently achieved universal household access to electricity, with efforts underway for strengthening the quality and reliability of supply. Enhanced electricity supply will therefore be a focus area for India to develop low carbon strategies as the energy sector contributed 75% of GHG emissions in India, of which electricity contributes more than half. India’s development of its electricity system is also seeing a rapid increase in the deployment of renewable sources of electricity generation promoted actively through public policies.

Current Policies and Targets

• Ambitious RE target with 50% of non-fossil capacity by 2030.
• Support for RE through “must run” status for renewable sources and Renewable Purchase Obligations for distribution companies, open access consumers and captive power plants. Policy on Energy Storage Obligations (ESO) has also been introduced.
• Green energy corridors to strengthen transmission networks in eight RE rich States.
• Policy and financial incentives include solar park development, accelerated depreciation on investment, waiver on transmission charges, and capital subsidy for residential solar roof-top and agricultural solar pumps.
• Promotion of hydro power through several policy measures to tap hydro power potential in the country and promote its use through the introduction of Hydro Purchase Obligation.
• Rational use of fossil-fuel-based capacity.
• A three-fold rise in nuclear-installed capacity by 2032.
• Promoting competition and markets for green electricity and smoother grid integration of Renewable Energy.
• Energy management at household level, including star rating of appliances.
• India has been proactively shutting down inefficient thermal units. A total 241 Units with capacity of 17281 MW have been retired from 10th Plan onwards till September 2021.

Elements of a Long-Term Low-Carbon Development Strategy

1. Expanding renewables and strengthening the grid: India aims to rapidly expand its RE capacity in the
   short to medium term while strengthening the electricity grid and enhancing its flexibility.
2. Other technologies for low-emissions development: Explore a greater role for nuclear energy and
   enhance support for R&D into future technologies such as green hydrogen, fuel cells, and biofuels.
3. Appropriate demand-side measures: Strong energy efficiency measures can help meet the growing
   demand for energy services using less energy, while energy supply to the bulk of the population will
   increase.
4. Rational utilization of fossil fuel resources: While the share of coal in installed capacity and supply of
   power will decline, coal will be needed for power and energy, including, inter alia, for grid stabilisation, supply to industry and to guarantee India’s energy security.
5. Enablers for a National Development-Friendly Transition: Enabling measures for a development-focused transition include promoting local manufacturing, and fostering capable, agile, and responsive institutions at all levels.
6. Optimum energy mix (complimenting National development scenarios): The role of all non-fossil and
   fossil fuel sources will be key to supporting the long-term low-carbon development strategy in different sectors.

Elements of Long-Term Low-Carbon Growth Strategy

1. Adaptation measures will be mainstreamed in urban planning.
2. Measures will be promoted for enhancing energy and resource efficiency and low-carbon development
   within urban planning guidelines, policies, and bylaws.
3. Climate-responsive and resilient building design, construction and operation in existing and future
   buildings are to be promoted.
4. Low-carbon municipal service delivery through resource efficiency and management of water, solid
   and liquid waste will be pursued.

Research and Innovation

India considers research and innovation in new technologies to be essential to meeting the challenge
of climate action, including both adaptation and mitigation, either globally or nationally. There are
many sectors where such innovation is especially critical for a developing country, for promoting low-carbon development, where the twin challenges of growth as well as the need for progressively decoupling emissions from such growth, must be met.

Chapter 3 of this report provides a detailed list of sectors and relevant technologies, a first list, where
innovations are urgently required.

India also notes the example of the COVID-19 pandemic where the advantages of setting aside the
intellectual property rights regime, particularly to meet global challenges, became very evident. Such an
approach if adopted at the global level will promote research and innovation relevant to climate action.

Mission LiFE – Lifestyle for Environment

Following from the announcement of LiFE that the Prime Minister, made in the National Statement delivered at COP26, India has updated its Nationally Determined Contributions and, inter alia, updated
the first as follows: To put forward and further propagate a healthy and sustainable way of living based
on traditions and values of conservation and moderation, including through a mass movement for ‘LiFE’–
‘Lifestyle for Environment’ as a key to combating climate change. LiFE is envisaged as a global movement
to effect a paradigm shift from the mindless and destructive consumption to the mindful and deliberate
utilization of national resources.

The three key phases of this pro-people and planet-centric strategy to combat climate change are

i) to promote globally the practice of simple yet effective environment-friendly actions by individuals in their daily lives;

ii) consequent response by industry and markets, tailoring supply and procurement, following from large-scale transformation of individual demand;

iii) through changes in demand and supply dynamics globally to promote long-term shifts in industrial and Government policies that can support sustainable consumption and production. The collective action towards mindful and deliberate utilisation of resources would certainly contribute in attaining the goal that India has set for itself under the Nationally Determined Contribution Targets namely, reduce the emission intensity of the GDP by 45% below 2005 levels by 2030.

Read more: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/India_LTLEDS.pdf