Interview with Mr Bruno Le Maire, Minister of Economy, Finance and Industrial and Digital Sovereignty, at CNews on September 14, 2022, on economic growth, inflation, bank rates, food prices , the tariff shield, energy issues and pension reform.
Full Text
LAURENCE FERRARI
Hello Bruno LE MAIRE.
BRUNO THE MAYOR
Hello Laurence FERRARI.
LAURENCE FERRARI
Welcome to the Morning of CNews. We will talk about the tariff shield in a moment, because that is what keeps the heads of the French above water, but it will stop at the end of December, we will see what you will tell us about it in a moment. . A word first about French growth, because that too is important. It was revised downwards to 1% against 1.4% expected so far. My question is simple, is France entering a recession?
BRUNO LE MAIRE
No, France is not going into recession, France, first of all, is having a good year 2022, we are going to revise growth for 2022 from 2.5 to 2.7, so I say this to all Cassandres who had explained to us that we would not reach 2.3, finally, we reached 2.5. And now, as consumption is holding up, business investment is holding up and job creations are still very dynamic, we are going to revise growth for 2022 to 2.7. And it’s a great performance…
LAURENCE FERRARI
Is that good news?
BRUNO LE MAIRE
Yes, it’s good news, it’s a good performance for the French economy, we are obviously impacted by the geopolitical context, the difficulties in Germany, the United States, China, we are obviously impacted by energy prices, so we’re revising growth to 1% in 2023, but it’s still positive growth.
LAURENCE FERRARI
I was talking to you about recession, Germany is in danger of going into recession, Madame LAGARDE, boss of the Central Bank, the same, dropped the word. In the end, is it a scenario that you study or not at all at Bercy?
BRUNO LE MAIRE
But we are obviously studying all the scenarios, and I put forward our figures with great caution, so we know very well that we are subject to all the international hazards, in particular the war in Ukraine, energy prices , and the German economic situation, which is our main partner. But for all that, the fundamentals of the French economy are solid, growth has resisted well in 2022, it has everything to resist in 2023 as well. We are dependent on the vagaries, but the fundamentals are healthy.
LAURENCE FERRARI
Inflation, the same, it is rising compared to forecasts, 5.3 for 2022, you told us several times that we were at the peak of inflation, and we see that it continues to rise, that it will go up until next summer. When will it start to decrease?
BRUNO LE MAIRE
So, it will decrease from the course of 2023, we do not expect an increase in inflation until the summer of 2023, a peak, it is spread over several months, I have indicated several times. So we are going to have in the coming months, December, January, February, because energy prices remain very high, inflation which remains very high, it’s true. And that’s why we decided to maintain the energy shield, which is the best protection we can guarantee to the French people, that’s also why I asked the banks to make an effort, which announced yesterday a shield on bank rates, no more than 2% increase in bank rates for all French people.
LAURENCE FERRARI
Did you twist the arm of the bankers?
BRUNO LE MAIRE
No, we discussed, I salute the sense of responsibility of the bankers, for years that we have been working together, each time that we had to be present in difficult times, I note that the French Banking Federation answered present, and there, once again, freezing of tariffs at 2% maximum, and for the most modest, who could pay up to 3 euros in bank charges per month, they will reduce that to one euro. So you see that we are taking all the necessary measures to cushion the shock, but we anticipate that in the course of 2023, we will have inflation which will start to decline.
LAURENCE FERRARI
And the French are very worried, you know thatโฆ
BRUNO LE MAIRE
Yes, I understand, finally, I really want to say how muchโฆ
LAURENCE FERRARI
In particular, there is great concern that is reflected in all the polls, in all the testimonies that we have…
BRUNO THE MAYOR
I fully understand this concern, and this concern is very simple, I am a father, I go shopping, I can clearly see that food prices are rising, and I know that for some French people, those who have the income the weakest, this inflation grabs them by the throat, and it is very difficult. And that’s why we are maintaining protective measures, but I also want to tell them that the French economy is creating jobs. And that this is the best protection for their purchasing power, that the French economy will emerge from this difficulty, from this inflationary period with many advantages, in terms of innovation, business creation, dynamism entrepreneurial. So we must not see everything in black,
LAURENCE FERRARI
You talk about exploding food prices, why are they exploding? Michel-Edouard LECLERC was in your place yesterday, he says that it is the industrialists who are not playing the game, and that it is speculation, in reality. He’s not wrong ?
BRUNO LE MAIRE
We don’t observe… I think we have to be very careful, we’re not going to pass the buck to each other, the reality is that production costs are more expensive for farmers , that the inputs, the fertilizers are more expensive, so that the agricultural raw material, it is necessarily more expensive, it is necessary that the farmers…
LAURENCE FERRARI
Yes, but you know that they are protected by the Egalim law, farmersโฆ
BRUNO LE MAIRE
Yes, of course, but you have toโฆ
LAURENCE FERRARI
Afterwards, it’s the distributors…
BRUNO LE MAIRE
But that’s good, it’s necessary that our farmers be protected, but, of course, that increases prices. And when wholesale prices increase, there is always a moment when it is reflected in retail prices, and we are exactly at that moment, Laurence FERRARI, where the increase in wholesale prices, which could have been retained by industrialists for a certain time, they have to live too, is reflected in retail prices; that is why we are in this situation of very high inflation, that it will still last until the beginning of the year 2023, but, that we anticipate, that then it will be amortized, and that inflation will decline over the course of the year.
LAURENCE FERRARI
Exceptional aid is arriving at this very moment for the 11 million households concerned, is there another amount of aid that will arrive, and to whom will it be targeted?
BRUNO THE MAYOR
Elisabeth BORNE, the Prime Minister, will clarify all this in a few hours, so we have to wait a few more hours. I can simply tell you that, with Elisabeth BORNE, we are committed to protecting those with the lowest incomes, and we are also committed, as we have been doing now for a year and a half, with the President of the Republic , to cushion the shock. We are the only European country which, from the start of the 2021 school year, in October, said: we are going to have a huge problem with gas prices and with electricity prices, so we must impose a tariff shield on the prices of gas and electricity prices; we are the only European country to have done so, other European countries then took measures a little later. Today, as I speak to you,
LAURENCE FERRARI
That would be 100% more, right?
BRUNO LE MAIRE
It would be 100% more, and it would be bills, but impossible for our compatriots to bear, so I think that the strategic choice we have made, which is to cushion the inflationary shock, and therefore to have the lowest level of inflation in the euro zone is a choice that goes back 14 months, which was anticipated, which has been maintained throughout, because I believe in the stability of economic policies, I think it was the most responsible choice, the most judicious, and above all the most protective for our compatriots.
LAURENCE FERRARI
The French see what is being done on the tariff shield, but they are not stupid, they also see that it will stop at the end of 2022, what will happen in 2023, will is there a possibility that this tariff shield will explode and disappear completely?
BRUNO THE MAYOR
that’s not my conception of the economy, the economy also has a political meaning. And there too, the political sense is to protect our compatriots when there is such a severe economic shock.
LAURENCE FERRARI
Nevertheless, the State will not be able to continue to pay for energy forever, 15% increase for gas, can you confirm this for me, on the gas bill from January?
BRUNO LE MAIRE
The Prime Minister will give all the figuresโฆ
LAURENCE FERRARI
These are the figures from Bercyโฆ
BRUNO LE MAIRE
All the figures in a few hours. Simply, it is also legitimate when the prices take 100, 120, 130%, that the consumer absorbs a part of it, but a part which must be measured, which must be acceptable. So the Prime Minister will specify all this in a few hours, it is a press conference which is important that Elisabeth BORNE is giving, but which obeys an economic and political logic which, I believe, is responsible, we protect, we send a signal price which is essential, because otherwise it would be unbearable for public finances, and we grant special protection to those with the lowest levels of income.
LAURENCE FERRARI
We are talking about gas, plus 15%, do we have an idea for electricity, same path, no, these are figures from your ministryโฆ
BRUNO LE MAIRE
Again, I won’t give you any figures this morning, wait a few hours. I am simply saying that we will maintain a shield that protects all of our compatriots, that we will ask a certain number of our compatriots to absorb a price increase so that we are not completely disconnected from the market, and that we will continue to protect the most vulnerable.
LAURENCE FERRARI
The situation will make tax cuts impossible now, we see that the contribution on the added value of companies, well, 2023 and 2024, we are pushing it back, there will be no more tax cuts…
BRUNO LE MAIRE
We don’t reject her, Laurence FERRARI…
LAURENCE FERRARI
You split it in two?
BRUNO THE MAYOR
We are doing it in two stages, because I want us to find the right balance between recovery, the competitiveness of our companies, and we must lower production taxes, because that is what will lead to reindustrialization from the country. We have already lowered them by 10 billion, no one but us has done it, I tell entrepreneurs who are worried, but look at what we have done. If you are Saint-Thomas, look at what has been decided by the government and by the President of the Republic. 10 billion that have been made, 4 billion that will be included in the 2023 budget, and we will vote from 2022, from this finance bill, the trajectory which will provide for 4 billion in 2023, 4 billion in 2024, that is i.e. a drop in two stages. Because restoring business competitiveness should not be done at the expense of restoring our public finances. It’s a balance to find. The same people who tell me that public finances must be restored should be satisfied that we are responsible and that we do in two stages, in more difficult circumstances, what could have been done in one stage.
LAURENCE FERRARI
Are you telling us this morning, Minister, that we are going to spend the winter without a power cut, without a gas cut? Are you telling us today that if the French nuclear fleet starts up again by February, we will get there?
BRUNO THE MAYOR
I tell you that it is possible. There are conditions. But I hear catastrophic scenarios: we’re going to have to turn off all the lights, turn off all the heating, shut down all the factories, we’re going to ask companies to stop production for several weeks, that’s not our central scenario. I want to say it with a lot…
LAURENCE FERRARI
It was the Prime Minister who said those words.
BRUNO LE MAIRE
No, the Prime Minister was also there to be very clear, the President of the Republic too. If we are all responsible, we pass the winter without difficulty. All responsible, what does that mean? Well that means restarting the nuclear reactors. That is EDF’s responsibility.
LAURENCE FERRARI
A forced march?
BRUNO THE MAYOR
Well as quickly as possible, as quickly as possible. We have reactors that are shut down…
LAURENCE FERRARI
Not at the expense of safety.
BRUNO LE MAIRE
Certainly not to the detriment of nuclear security or safety, but EDF’s responsibility is to restart our nuclear reactors as quickly as possible, and I know that they are working on it morning, noon and evening. , to have sufficient production. First responsibility. The second is you, me, all the viewers who are listening to us: consume less energy. And there we are going to give very precise indications, because we also have to explain to our compatriots what is the most profitable in terms of energy consumption. Everyone thinks about lighting, everyone thinks about heating, we don’t think enough about cooking.
LAURENCE FERRARI
Yes, household appliances.
BRUNO LE MAIRE
Hobs, household appliances, etc.
LAURENCE FERRARI
Cold.
BRUNO LE MAIRE
Cold, all of this consumes a lot of energy, you have to be careful. Third responsibility, finallyโฆ
LAURENCE FERRARI
But the French know all that, Bruno LE MAIRE, they are not the most energy consumersโฆ
BRUNO LE MAIRE
โฆthat of companies.
LAURENCE FERRARI
โฆ we know it’s the companies.
BRUNO LE MAIRE
But there are also companies, I will bring them together and in a few weeks with Agnรจs PANNIER-RUNACHER, to tell them that as soon as the network manager sends a signal, 2 or 3 days before, saying: be careful , there will be a peak in consumption and a peak in cold weather, you have to slow down your production, so that there is no cut, so that there is no load shedding. If everyone demonstrates this sense of responsibility, we can get through the winter without major difficulty.
BRUNO LE MAIRE
So, so much the better if you tell us that this morning. When is the exit from the European electricity market? We know that there are discussions at European level, will it take months, years?
BRUNO LE MAIRE
In any case, things have to go as quickly as possible. We have been carrying this with the President of the Republic for more than a year. We have been explaining to the European Commission for a year now that it is time to disconnect the price of gas and the price of electricity.
LAURENCE FERRARI
So, we weigh nothing.
BRUNO LE MAIRE
We are finally proven right.
LAURENCE FERRARI
We don’t weigh anything if it still hasn’t happened.
BRUNO LE MAIRE
We weigh, since we obtained this after a year, but we will weigh even more to do, in 2 days, what was done in 12 months.
LAURENCE FERRARI
So you are optimistic, on what?
BRUNO LE MAIRE
Yes, I am optimistic about the fact that we are going to permanently disconnect the price of gas, the price of electricity. It’s an aberration to say: we need more carbon-free electricity, but the price to pay will be the price of fossil fuels. Finally, at some point, you have two wires that are touching, it is the case to say it, and it does not work.
LAURENCE FERRARI
A word about pensions. Do you maintain that the reform will come into force in 2023? Isn’t that adding disorder to disorder?
BRUNO LE MAIRE
But what would add disorder to the current economic difficulties is not to initiate the reforms that are necessary. And pension reform…
LAURENCE FERRARI
The scheme is profitable. The plan is profitable, this year, in 2022.
BRUNO THE MAYOR
Yes, finally, we are told, we are told one year, it’s profitable, and then the following year, well, strangely, I see the latest COR forecasts, it’s not going to be that profitable. Finally, it is not responsible. What is responsible is telling us that to guarantee the prosperity of our children, our own prosperity, we must all work collectively more. And there is no alternative to this idea, except the impoverishment of France, your deepening, the impoverishment of those who are listening to us. We can all work less, keep the pension system as it exists today, our children will live less well, will be treated less well, they will be housed less well, they will travel less well. They will invest less well, they will have businesses that will perform less well. This is not what I wish for our compatriots, and this is not what I wish for France. So yes, I will continue to defend the ardent need for a pension reform, proposed by the President of the Republic, and announced for the summer of 2023.
LAURENCE FERRARI
Will this reform be examined as of this fall, within the framework of the Social Security budget or not?
BRUNO THE MAYOR
We have to discuss it. Afterwards, it’s up to the minister in charge of pensions to do it, it’s not my responsibility, but I say it as a member of a government, with a Prime Minister, a President of the Republic who is very strongly committed on this subject, I would like each of our compatriots to understand that we can do things that are fair, things that are balanced, that take into account the age of entry into working life, that take into account the difficulty work. It’s not about treating everyone the same way, of course, we want justice, but we also want, because it’s our responsibility, to guarantee future generations that they will have the same level of life than ours. And if there is no more collective work,
LAURENCE FERRARI
I would like to end with a question about the end of life. We learned that Jean-Luc GODARD, the immense director who died yesterday, had gone to Switzerland to have recourse to assisted suicide. These are deep, intimate questions that have been going through French society for years. Shouldn’t we now go further than the Claeys-Leonetti law? The ethics committee has paved the way for the possibility of active assistance in dying, President MACRON is going to launch a major national consultation, what is your conviction on this Bruno LE MAIRE?
BRUNO THE MAYOR
There are things I know, Laurence FERRARI. What I know is that we need more palliative care units in our country, and Jean LEONETTI said it very well yesterday, there are 20 departments that don’t have a palliative care unit. I know, my father died in one of these units, they are absolutely remarkable. So everyone must have access to it, because it is the guarantee of dying accompanied, with dignity. And then there’s what I don’t know. Should we go further, should we go towards assisted suicide, with all that that represents in terms of transformation of our society? Well, when you don’t know, I think the best way to form a conviction is to discuss, to exchange, in a deeply human way, that is to say with you, with the viewers, with the people we meet, with the specialists, with the doctors, with, I wouldn’t say every citizen, with every human person in society. So I am waiting for the debate that the President of the Republic has announced with great impatience, because I think it is good that we are asking ourselves these questions. When you don’t have an answer, you have to go to the end of these questions.
LAURENCE FERRARI
Thank you very much Bruno LE MAIRE for coming this morning to Cnews’ Matinale.
BRUNO THE MAYOR
Thank you Laurence FERRARI.
Source: Government of France Information Service, September 15, 2022
