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Analysis of Terrorism Trends, Hotspots, and Emerging Threats: Sub-Saharan Africa is the New Epicentre of Global Terrorism
The thirteenth edition of the Global Terrorism Index (GTI), produced in 2026 by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP) Australia, represents a comprehensive and longitudinal assessment of global terrorism trends over the past two decades, drawing upon data from the TerrorismTracker database maintained by Dragonfly since January 2007. The Index, first launched in 2012, has evolved into one of the most authoritative datasets for measuring the impact of terrorism across countries, combining indicators such as the number of incidents, fatalities, injuries, and hostages to generate a composite score that reflects both the immediate and residual impacts of terrorist activity. The 2026 edition marks a significant turning point in the trajectory of global terrorism, recording a substantial decline in both the number of attacks and fatalities compared to the preceding year, yet simultaneously highlighting structural shifts that complicate any optimistic interpretation of this trend.
In 2025, global deaths from terrorism fell by 28 per cent to 5,582, representing one of the sharpest annual declines since the peak years of global terrorism in 2014 and 2015, when deaths exceeded 30,000 annually. The number of terrorist incidents also declined by nearly 22 per cent, dropping to 2,944 attacks worldwide. This decline was geographically widespread, with 81 countries recording improvements in their GTI scores, while only 19 experienced deterioration, the lowest number of deteriorations in the history of the Index. Such figures suggest a broad-based reduction in the operational capabilities or strategic intent of many terrorist organisations, yet the report emphasises that this global improvement masks significant regional divergences and emerging threats that may reverse these gains in the near future.
One of the most notable shifts identified in the 2026 report is the relative increase in terrorism within Western countries, which accounted for seven of the 19 deteriorations recorded globally. While the absolute number of deaths in the West remains comparatively low, the proportional increase was striking, with fatalities rising by 280 per cent to 57 deaths in 2025. This surge was driven by several high-profile attacks, including a truck attack in New Orleans in January 2025 and a mass shooting at Bondi Beach in Sydney in December 2025, where 15 people were killed in an attack targeting Jewish Australians. The Bondi Beach incident stands as the deadliest terrorist attack in Australia since the Port Arthur massacre in April 1996, illustrating the re-emergence of mass-casualty attacks in societies historically considered low-risk.
Despite these developments in the West, terrorism remains overwhelmingly concentrated in a small number of countries, primarily those experiencing ongoing conflict or political instability. In 2025, nearly 70 per cent of all terrorism-related deaths occurred in just five countries: Pakistan, Burkina Faso, Nigeria, Niger, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. This concentration reflects a long-standing pattern observed since the early 2000s, where terrorism is closely linked to insurgency, civil war, and weak state governance. Sub-Saharan Africa, in particular, has emerged as the epicentre of global terrorism, with six of the ten most affected countries located in the region.
Pakistan
Pakistan recorded the highest impact score in the 2026 Index, surpassing Burkina Faso for the first time. This shift reflects a dramatic resurgence in terrorist activity following the return of the Taliban to power in Afghanistan in August 2021. The porous border between Afghanistan and Pakistan, particularly along the Durand Line, has facilitated the reorganisation and expansion of militant groups such as Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). In 2025, Pakistan recorded 1,139 terrorism-related deaths and 1,045 incidents, the highest levels since 2013. The provinces of Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa accounted for over 74 per cent of attacks and 67 per cent of deaths, underscoring the geographical concentration of violence in border regions. The TTP alone was responsible for 56 per cent of deaths, carrying out 595 attacks that resulted in 637 fatalities. Additionally, the Balochistan Liberation Army conducted one of the most dramatic attacks of the year by seizing a passenger train and taking 442 hostages, illustrating the continued capacity for large-scale coordinated operations.
Nigeria
Nigeria experienced the largest increase in terrorism-related fatalities in 2025, with deaths rising by 46 per cent to 750, marking the highest level since 2020. The resurgence of violence was driven primarily by Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) and Boko Haram, which together accounted for 80 per cent of all deaths. ISWAP, which originated as a splinter faction of Boko Haram in 2016 following a leadership dispute, re-established itself as the deadliest group in Nigeria, carrying out 92 attacks resulting in 384 deaths, a substantial increase from just 20 attacks in 2024. Boko Haram, while less active in terms of the number of attacks, demonstrated increased lethality, with 43 attacks resulting in 213 fatalities. Civilians remained the primary targets, accounting for 67 per cent of all deaths, reflecting the continued use of terrorism as a tool of coercion and intimidation against local populations.
Democratic Republic of the Congo
The Democratic Republic of the Congo also recorded a significant deterioration, reaching its worst-ever position on the Index. Deaths rose by nearly 28 per cent to 467, largely driven by the activities of the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), an Islamic State-affiliated group operating in the eastern provinces. The ADF exploited the diversion of Congolese military resources toward the M23 rebel conflict, enabling it to intensify attacks on vulnerable civilian targets, including churches, hospitals, and funerals. Notable incidents included the massacre of 70 Christians in a church in Kasanga in February 2025 and an attack on a church in Komanda in July that killed at least 43 worshippers, highlighting the group’s strategy of targeting symbolic and communal spaces.
South America
In South America, Colombia re-entered the top ten most affected countries for the first time since 2013, reflecting a sharp increase in terrorist activity. Deaths rose by 70 per cent, while attacks increased by nearly 47 per cent, driven by dissident factions of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and the National Liberation Army (ELN). These groups have adapted to evolving conflict dynamics by incorporating drone warfare, inspired by tactics observed in the Russia-Ukraine conflict since February 2022. Between 2024 and 2025, 77 drone attacks were recorded in Colombia, representing a significant technological shift in insurgent capabilities. Despite the Colombian government’s “Total Peace” initiative launched under President Gustavo Petro in 2022, ceasefires have often been exploited by armed groups to consolidate territorial control and expand operations.
Burkina Faso
In contrast, Burkina Faso recorded the largest decrease in terrorism-related deaths globally, with fatalities falling by 686, or 45 per cent, compared to 2024. However, this decline was accompanied by an increase in lethality, with deaths per attack rising to 14.3, indicating a shift toward fewer but more deadly incidents. Civilian casualties declined dramatically from 996 in 2024 to 157 in 2025, while military and police fatalities increased, reflecting intensified clashes between security forces and militant groups. Jamaat Nusrat Al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM) remained the dominant group, responsible for over 80 per cent of attacks, though its overall activity declined slightly.
At the organisational level, the four deadliest terrorist groups in 2025 were Islamic State (IS), JNIM, TTP, and al-Shabaab, collectively responsible for 3,869 deaths, or 70 per cent of the global total. While three of these groups recorded declines in fatalities, TTP was the only group to increase its lethality. The global footprint of these organisations also contracted, with their presence declining from 22 countries in 2024 to 16 in 2025. Islamic State, despite reduced territorial control since its defeat in Iraq and Syria in March 2019, continues to operate as a decentralised network, maintaining affiliates across multiple regions. In 2025, it was active in 15 countries, with a notable shift in activity toward sub-Saharan Africa, where attacks nearly doubled from 111 to 221 incidents.
The Sahel region, encompassing Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, remained the focal point of global terrorism, accounting for more than half of all terrorism-related deaths. The tri-border area, characterised by weak governance and porous borders, has facilitated the expansion of jihadist groups. Meanwhile, al-Shabaab in Somalia launched its Shabelle Offensive in early 2025, advancing to within 50 kilometres of Mogadishu by mid-year, exploiting political divisions and the transition between African Union peacekeeping missions.
The 2026 Index also highlights the growing importance of border regions in the geography of terrorism. Over 41 per cent of attacks occurred within 50 kilometres of an international border, and 64 per cent within 100 kilometres, reflecting the strategic advantages of operating in areas where state authority is limited. This trend has intensified since 2011, with cross-border insurgencies becoming a defining feature of modern terrorism.
Another critical development is the rise of youth radicalisation, particularly in Western countries. In 2025, youth and minors accounted for 42 per cent of terror-related investigations in Europe and North America, a threefold increase since 2021. The process of radicalisation has accelerated dramatically, with individuals now becoming radicalised within weeks due to the influence of online propaganda and algorithm-driven content. Psychological and social factors, including isolation, neglect, and exposure to extremist subcultures, have played a significant role in this trend.
The report situates these developments within a broader context of global geopolitical fragmentation. Events in early 2026, including escalating tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan, the resurgence of Islamic State activity in Syria, and military confrontations involving major powers in the Middle East, suggest that the decline in terrorism observed in 2025 may be temporary. The increasing use of proxy networks, the spread of advanced technologies, and the persistence of unresolved conflicts all point to a volatile and uncertain future.
Terror Impact on India
The impact of terrorism in India has evolved through distinct historical phases, reflecting changing geopolitical and internal dynamics since the late twentieth century. The insurgency in Punjab during the 1980s, marked by separatist violence and culminating in events such as Operation Blue Star in June 1984 and the assassination of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi on 31 October 1984, represented one of the earliest major waves of modern terrorism in the country. This was followed by the rise of militancy in Jammu and Kashmir from 1989 onward, fuelled by cross-border infiltration and leading to prolonged conflict, mass displacement, and thousands of casualties over decades.
Urban terrorism emerged prominently with the coordinated bomb blasts in Mumbai on 12 March 1993, killing over 250 people, and later the 26 November 2008 attacks, which targeted multiple locations and caused 166 deaths, significantly altering India’s counterterrorism architecture. The early 2000s also saw attacks such as the December 2001 assault on the Indian Parliament in New Delhi and serial bombings in cities including Delhi, Jaipur, and Ahmedabad between 2005 and 2008. Simultaneously, left-wing extremism, particularly by Maoist groups across the “Red Corridor” states such as Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, and Odisha, intensified in the 2000s, with incidents like the Dantewada attack in April 2010, killing 76 security personnel.
In recent years, leading up to 2026, while overall terrorism-related fatalities have declined compared to peak periods, sporadic high-impact attacks continue, including the Pulwama suicide bombing on 14 February 2019 in Jammu and Kashmir, which killed 40 paramilitary personnel and escalated tensions with Pakistan. By the mid-2020s, India has witnessed a relative containment of large-scale coordinated attacks due to enhanced intelligence, surveillance, and counterterrorism measures, yet challenges persist in border regions, especially along the Line of Control, and in Pahalgam on 22 April 2025, which killed 26 civilians, mostly Hindu tourists by Pakisthani Islamic terrorists, triggered nationwide outrage and a strong response from India.
Core Concept: Global Terrorism and Security Dynamics
The Global Terrorism Index 2026 serves as a central analytical node connecting patterns of violence, geopolitical instability, and socio-economic drivers across regions, linking macro-level conflict systems with micro-level radicalisation processes and state responses.
Cluster: Terrorist Organisations and Networks
This cluster connects transnational and regional groups shaping modern terrorism.
See also: Islamic State; Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan; Boko Haram; Al-Shabaab; Jamaat Nusrat Al-Islam wal Muslimeen
Interlinked with: Conflict Zones; Borderland Terrorism; Radicalisation Processes
Cluster: Conflict Zones and Regional Hotspots
Focuses on geographic concentration of terrorism linked to fragile states and ongoing conflicts.
See also: Pakistan; Nigeria; Burkina Faso; Democratic Republic of the Congo; Colombia
Interlinked with: Terrorist Organisations; State Responses; Borderland Dynamics
Cluster: Borderland Terrorism and Geopolitics
Explores the strategic importance of border regions in facilitating insurgency and cross-border militancy.
See also: Afghanistan–Pakistan Borderlands; Sahel Tri-border Region; Lake Chad Basin; Colombia–Venezuela Frontier
Interlinked with: Conflict Zones; Military Operations; International Relations
Cluster: State Response and Counterterrorism Measures
Examines policy, diplomatic, and military responses to terrorism by nation-states.
See also: Indus Waters Treaty; Cabinet Committee on Security (India); Persona Non Grata Doctrine; Counterinsurgency Operations
Interlinked with: Terrorist Attacks; Military Campaigns; International Law
Major Terrorist Incidents
Documents high-impact attacks that shape national and global responses.
See also: Pahalgam Attack (22 April 2025); Mumbai Attacks; Pulwama Attack
Interlinked with: State Response; Radicalisation; Media and Public Perception
Cluster: Military Operations and Strategic Responses
Focuses on targeted campaigns against terrorist infrastructure.
See also: Operation SINDOOR; Airstrike Doctrine; Intelligence-led Operations
Interlinked with: State Response; Borderland Terrorism; Conflict Zones
Cluster: Radicalisation and Social Drivers
Analyzes pathways leading individuals to extremism across regions.
See also: Online Radicalisation; Youth Extremism; Socio-economic Marginalisation; Political Polarisation
Interlinked with: Terrorist Organisations; Lone-Wolf Attacks; Western Terrorism Trends
Cluster: Western Terrorism Trends
Highlights evolving patterns in Europe, North America, and Australia.
See also: Lone-Wolf Attacks; Mass Shooting Incidents; Political Violence; Identity-based Extremism
Interlinked with: Radicalisation; Major Terrorist Incidents; Security Policies
Cluster: Technology and Terrorism
Examines the role of emerging technologies in modern terrorism.
See also: Drone Warfare; Social Media Propaganda; Encrypted Communication Networks
Interlinked with: Terrorist Organisations; Radicalisation; Military Operations
Cluster: Global Governance and Peace Studies
Connects terrorism analysis to broader frameworks of peace and development.
See also: Institute for Economics & Peace; Peace Metrics; Conflict Resolution Frameworks; Human Security
Interlinked with: State Response; Socio-economic Factors; Long-term Global Stability