African Studies (Volume VII): Economy, Technology and Renaissance (2005-2006)

Sarvarthapedia (Core Areas)

African Studies

African Studies Synopsis: A Ten-Volume Series

Volume VII of the Sarvarthapedia of African Studies — continuing directly from Volume VI, with the same depth, structure, and mobile‑friendly format.

VOLUME VII: AFRICA RISING – ECONOMIC GROWTH, TECHNOLOGY, AND CULTURAL RENAISSANCE (2005–2026)

General Introduction to Volume VII

Volume VII of the Encyclopedia of African Studies covers the period from 2005 to the present (2026) — an era of extraordinary transformation, often called the “Africa Rising” period. After the horrors of the 1990s — the Rwandan genocide, the Congo wars, the collapse of Somalia, the civil wars in Liberia and Sierra Leone — Africa entered a new century with renewed hope. The economies grew. The technologies spread. The cultures conquered the world. And the people demanded better governance.

The volume begins in 2005, a year that saw the end of two devastating civil wars (Angola and Liberia), the first African woman elected head of state (Ellen Johnson Sirleaf in Liberia), and the Make Poverty History campaign that brought Africa to the attention of the G8 summit in Gleneagles, Scotland. It ends in 2026, the present year, as Africa stands at a crossroads: youthful, urbanizing, digitally connected, but still struggling with corruption, inequality, climate change, and the legacy of colonialism.

The “Africa Rising” narrative is real, but it is also incomplete. Yes, African economies grew at an average of 5–6 percent per year between 2000 and 2014 — faster than the global average. Yes, mobile phones leapfrogged landlines, bringing banking, information, and services to millions who had never had a bank account or a computer. Yes, African music (Afrobeats, Amapiano, Mbalax, Soukous), film (Nollywood), literature (Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie, Ngũgĩ wa Thiong’o), and art (El Anatsui, Yinka Shonibare, William Kentridge) conquered the world. Yes, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) , launched in 2021, created the largest free trade zone by population in the world.

But the narrative also obscures persistent problems: inequality (the gap between rich and poor has grown), corruption (the elites still steal), weak governance (many countries are still electoral authoritarianisms), climate change (Africa contributes the least but suffers the most), debt (many countries are again in debt distress), and conflict (the Sahel, the eastern Congo, the Horn of Africa, and the Great Lakes region remain violent).

Volume VII is organized thematically. Part One examines the economic boom (2000–2014): the commodity supercycle, the growth of the middle class, and the limits of the boom. Part Two analyzes the technological leapfrog : the mobile phone revolution, M‑Pesa, the tech hubs of Lagos, Nairobi, Cape Town, and Kigali, and the rise of African innovation. Part Three covers the creative economy : Nollywood, Afrobeats, the African literature renaissance, and the global recognition of African art. Part Four examines the political landscape : the democratic transitions (Ghana, Nigeria, Kenya, Zambia), the long‑serving leaders (Paul Kagame, Yoweri Museveni, Teodoro Obiang), and the popular uprisings (Burkina Faso, Sudan, Algeria). Part Five covers the new scramble for Africa : China’s Belt and Road Initiative, the trade and debt relationship, the reaction of the West, and the debate over neo‑colonialism. Part Six examines the ongoing conflicts : the Boko Haram insurgency in the Lake Chad basin, the Sahel jihadism, the eastern Congo, the Tigray war in Ethiopia, and the crisis in Sudan. Part Seven covers the challenges of the future : climate change, the youth bulge, the debt crisis, and the COVID‑19 pandemic. The volume ends with a look forward: Africa in 2126 , one hundred years from now, imagining the possibilities and the perils.

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Part One: The Economic Boom (2000–2014)

The Commodity Supercycle

Between 2000 and 2014, global commodity prices soared. The demand was driven by China , which was industrializing at an unprecedented pace. China needed iron ore, copper, cobalt, oil, gas, timber, and agricultural products. Africa had them.

The commodity boom transformed African economies:

• Angola and Nigeria (oil) grew at 8–10 percent per year.
• Zambia (copper) grew at 6–7 percent per year.
• Ghana (gold, cocoa, and newly discovered oil) grew at 7–8 percent per year.
• Ethiopia (not a commodity exporter, but a recipient of Chinese investment) grew at 10–11 percent per year.
• Rwanda (services, not commodities) grew at 7–8 percent per year.

The growth was not only in extractive industries. The growth created demand for construction, transportation, banking, retail, and services. The middle class expanded. According to the African Development Bank, about 30 percent of Africans (about 350 million people) were middle class by 2014 — defined as spending between $2 and $20 per day. (Critics noted that $2 a day is still poverty by global standards.)

The growth also created new problems. The wealth was concentrated in the hands of a small elite. Corruption increased. The environment was degraded. And when commodity prices fell (2014–2016), the economies crashed.

The Rise of the Middle Class

The African middle class was not a monolith. It included:

• The urban professionals : lawyers, doctors, engineers, accountants, bankers, and civil servants.
• The entrepreneurs : small business owners, traders, and service providers.
• The diaspora returnees : Africans who had studied or worked in Europe or America and returned with skills, capital, and connections.
• The nouveau riche : those who had enriched themselves through corruption, connections, or luck.

The middle class demanded better housing, better schools, better health care, better transportation, and better entertainment. They also demanded better governance — though they were often co‑opted by the ruling elites.

The middle class was also fragile. A single illness, a single accident, a single economic shock could push a middle‑class family back into poverty.

The Limits of the Boom

The commodity boom ended in 2014–2016, when China’s growth slowed and global prices collapsed. The African economies that had relied on commodities went into recession:

• Nigeria (oil) – growth fell from 6 percent in 2014 to 2.7 percent in 2015, and to negative in 2016.
• Angola (oil) – growth fell from 7 percent in 2013 to 3 percent in 2015, and to negative in 2016.
• Zambia (copper) – growth fell from 7 percent in 2013 to 3 percent in 2015, and to negative in 2015.
• South Africa (diversified, but dependent on commodity exports) – growth fell from 3 percent in 2011 to 1.5 percent in 2014, and to 0.5 percent in 2016.

The crash exposed the fragility of the “Africa Rising” narrative. The growth had been driven by external demand, not by internal transformation. The African economies were still dependent on exporting raw materials and importing manufactured goods. They had not diversified. They had not industrialized.

The Debt Crisis Returns

To finance their growth (and their consumption), African governments had borrowed heavily — from China, from Western banks, from the World Bank, from the IMF, and from private bondholders. By 2020, sub‑Saharan Africa owed about $700 billion . The debt payments were crowding out spending on health, education, and infrastructure.

The COVID‑19 pandemic (2020–2022) made the debt crisis worse. The G20 (the world’s largest economies) created the Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) , which allowed poor countries to suspend debt payments. But the DSSI was voluntary, and many creditors (especially China) did not participate. The Common Framework for Debt Treatments (2020) was supposed to restructure debts, but it was slow and ineffective.

By 2026, many African countries are again in debt distress : they cannot pay their debts. Zambia defaulted in 2020; Ethiopia defaulted in 2023; Ghana defaulted in 2024; Kenya is on the brink. The debt crisis is not over; it is getting worse.

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Part Two: The Technological Leapfrog (2000–2026)

The Mobile Phone Revolution

In the 1990s, Africa had few landlines. A phone was a luxury for the rich. In the 2000s, mobile phones arrived — and they spread like wildfire. By 2020, there were over 500 million mobile phone subscribers in sub‑Saharan Africa. By 2025, there were over 700 million . Smartphones (with internet access) became affordable, and the digital divide narrowed (though it did not disappear).

The mobile phone changed everything:

• Communication : People could call, text, and message their families, friends, and customers.
• Information : People could access news, weather, markets, and health information.
• Banking : People could send and receive money, pay bills, and save for the future.
• Education : People could take online courses, watch educational videos, and access libraries.
• Health : People could consult doctors, receive diagnoses, and order medicine.
• Politics : People could organize protests, share information, and hold their leaders accountable.

M‑Pesa and the Mobile Money Revolution

M‑Pesa (M for mobile, Pesa for money in Swahili) was launched in Kenya in 2007 by the mobile network operator Safaricom. It allowed users to deposit, withdraw, transfer, and pay for goods and services using their mobile phones. No bank account was required. No credit history was required. No branch was required.

M‑Pesa was a revolution. By 2010, it had over 10 million users in Kenya. By 2020, it had over 50 million users across Africa (Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Ethiopia, Ghana, and others). M‑Pesa was not just a payment system; it was a banking system for the unbanked. It allowed small farmers, traders, and entrepreneurs to save, borrow, and invest.

M‑Pesa also enabled new businesses:

• Payments : People could pay for electricity, water, school fees, and taxes.
• Loans : M‑Shwari (a partnership between Safaricom and the Commercial Bank of Africa) offered small loans based on the user’s transaction history.
• Savings : Users could save money in their M‑Pesa accounts, earning interest.
• Insurance : Micro‑insurance products (health, crop, funeral) were offered through M‑Pesa.

M‑Pesa inspired similar systems across the world. It is now studied as a model of financial inclusion and technological leapfrog .

Tech Hubs: Lagos, Nairobi, Cape Town, Kigali

The mobile phone revolution created a demand for apps, services, and content. In response, tech hubs emerged across Africa. The most famous are:

• Lagos, Nigeria – The “Silicon Lagoon.” Lagos is the tech capital of Africa. It is home to Andela (a software developer training company), Flutterwave (a payment processing company), Paystack (a payment gateway, acquired by Stripe for $200 million), Interswitch (a payment processing company), and dozens of other startups. Lagos also hosts the Africa Tech Summit and the Social Media Week .
• Nairobi, Kenya – The “Silicon Savannah.” Nairobi is home to iHub (one of the first tech hubs in Africa), Nairobi Garage , M‑Pesa (Safaricom), Ushahidi (a crowdsourcing platform for crisis mapping), BRCK (a rugged internet device), and Twiga Foods (a B2B food distribution platform). Nairobi also hosts the Africa Climate Summit and the Nairobi Innovation Week .
• Cape Town, South Africa – The “Silicon Cape.” Cape Town is home to Yoco (a point‑of‑sale payment company), Jumo (a financial services platform), Aerobotics (an agricultural drone company), and Luno (a cryptocurrency exchange). Cape Town also hosts the Africa Tech Festival and the Cape Town International Jazz Festival (which attracts tech investors).
• Kigali, Rwanda – The “Smart City.” Kigali is not a natural tech hub; it is a government‑led project. The Rwandan government has invested in fiber optics, e‑government, drone delivery (Zipline), and the Kigali Innovation City . Rwanda is also the headquarters of the African Union’s Pan‑African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) .

Other tech hubs include Accra (Ghana), Dakar (Senegal), Addis Ababa (Ethiopia), Kampala (Uganda), Dar es Salaam (Tanzania), and Johannesburg (South Africa).

The Rise of African Innovation

African tech entrepreneurs are not just copying Silicon Valley. They are solving African problems:

• Agriculture : Twiga Foods (Kenya) connects farmers to vendors. Apollo Agriculture (Kenya) uses satellite data to offer credit to small farmers. Zenvus (Nigeria) uses sensors to monitor soil health.
• Health : LifeBank (Nigeria) delivers blood, oxygen, and other medical supplies. mPharma (Ghana) manages drug supply chains. Babyl (Rwanda) offers telemedicine.
• Education : uLesson (Nigeria) offers online learning. Eneza Education (Kenya) offers SMS‑based learning. Ubongo (Tanzania) produces educational cartoons.
• Energy : M‑KOPA (Kenya) offers pay‑as‑you‑go solar power. Bboxx (Togo) does the same. Koko Networks (Kenya) offers clean cooking fuel.
• Transport : Gokada (Nigeria) and SafeBoda (Uganda) offer motorcycle hailing. Shuttlers (Nigeria) offers corporate bus hailing.

African innovation is not only in tech. It is also in social enterprise , impact investing , and circular economy . The Tony Elumelu Foundation (Nigeria) has funded thousands of entrepreneurs. The African Development Bank has launched the Boost Africa program. The United Nations has launched the SDG (Sustainable Development Goals) Innovation Fund .

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Part Three: The Creative Economy (2005–2026)

Nollywood: The Second Largest Film Industry in the World

Nollywood (the Nigerian film industry) is the second largest film industry in the world by volume (after Bollywood in India, ahead of Hollywood). It produces about 2,500 films per year (about 50 per week). The films are cheap to make (about $25,000–$50,000 each) and cheap to watch (about $1–$2 per DVD or download). They are popular across Africa and the diaspora.

Nollywood began in the 1990s, when Nigerian filmmakers began producing home videos. The industry exploded in the 2000s, with the advent of digital cameras, affordable editing software, and online distribution. Nollywood films are known for their melodrama, their morality tales, their music, and their humor. The themes include love, betrayal, family, money, power, corruption, and the supernatural.

Nollywood has launched international stars: Genevieve Nnaji , Omotola Jalade Ekeinde , Richard Mofe‑Damijo , Ramsey Nouah , Rita Dominic , and Chiwetel Ejiofor (who also acts in Hollywood). Nollywood films are now available on Netflix , Amazon Prime , and YouTube .

Nollywood is not the only African film industry. Gollywood (Ghana), Kannywood (Hausa language, based in Kano, Nigeria), Collywood (Ivory Coast), Swahiliwood (Tanzania), and Ugawood (Uganda) are also growing. The African Film Festival (FESPACO) is held every two years in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.

Afrobeats: The Sound of the World

Afrobeats (not to be confused with Afrobeat, the 1970s genre created by Fela Kuti) is a contemporary genre that blends West African music (highlife, juju, fuji, hiplife) with global genres (hip hop, R&B, dancehall, reggae, EDM). It is characterized by its infectious rhythms, its catchy melodies, and its lyrics (in English, Pidgin, Yoruba, Igbo, Hausa, Twi, and other languages).

Afrobeats began in the 2000s, with artists like D’Banj ( “Oliver Twist” ), P‑Square ( “Personally” ), and Wizkid ( “Holla at Your Boy” ). It exploded in the 2010s and 2020s, with artists like Burna Boy ( “African Giant” , “Twice as Tall” ), Davido ( “Fall” , “If” ), Tiwa Savage ( “Kele Kele” ), Yemi Alade ( “Johnny” ), Mr Eazi ( “Leg Over” ), Rema ( “Dumebi” ), CKay ( “Love Nwantiti” ), and Tems ( “Essence” , with Wizkid).

Afrobeats has conquered the world. Burna Boy sold out Madison Square Garden (New York) and the O2 Arena (London). Davido performed at the BET Awards. Wizkid collaborated with Drake, Beyoncé, and Justin Bieber. Tems won a Grammy (Best Melodic Rap Performance for “Wait for U” with Future and Drake). The Afrobeats genre now has its own category on the Billboard charts and its own playlist on Spotify ( “Afrobeats Hits” ).

Afrobeats is not the only African genre. Amapiano (South Africa) is a house‑music subgenre that has gone global ( “Monalisa” by Lojay and Sarz). Mbalax (Senegal, Youssou N’Dour) is still popular. Soukous (Congo, Koffi Olomide) is still danced. Bongo Flava (Tanzania, Diamond Platnumz) is the sound of East Africa.

The African Literature Renaissance

African literature has flourished in the twenty‑first century. The old masters — Chinua Achebe , Ngũgĩ wa Thiong’o , Bessie Head , Mariama Bâ , Ousmane Sembène — have been joined by a new generation:

• Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie (Nigeria) – Author of Half of a Yellow Sun (2006, about the Biafran War), The Thing Around Your Neck (2009), Americanah (2013, about race, immigration, and identity), and the essay We Should All Be Feminists (2014, sampled by Beyoncé). Adichie is the most famous African writer of her generation.
• Teju Cole (Nigeria/USA) – Author of Open City (2011), a novel about a Nigerian‑German psychiatrist walking through New York City. Cole is also a photographer and an art historian.
• NoViolet Bulawayo (Zimbabwe) – Author of We Need New Names (2013), about a Zimbabwean girl who moves to the United States. The novel was shortlisted for the Booker Prize.
• Yaa Gyasi (Ghana/USA) – Author of Homegoing (2016), a novel tracing the descendants of two half‑sisters in Ghana and the United States over 250 years. A masterpiece.
• Tsitsi Dangarembga (Zimbabwe) – Author of the trilogy Nervous Conditions (1988), The Book of Not (2006), and This Mournable Body (2018). The third novel was shortlisted for the Booker Prize.
• Maaza Mengiste (Ethiopia/USA) – Author of The Shadow King (2019), about the Italian invasion of Ethiopia (1935). The novel was shortlisted for the Booker Prize.
• Abdulrazak Gurnah (Tanzania/UK) – Author of Paradise (1994), By the Sea (2001), Desertion (2005), and Afterlives (2020). He won the Nobel Prize in Literature (2021).

African literature is now taught in universities around the world. It is translated into dozens of languages. It is read by millions.

African Art and the Global Market

African art has also gone global. Contemporary African artists are exhibited in the world’s most prestigious museums and galleries:

• El Anatsui (Ghana) – Creates huge, shimmering tapestries from bottle caps and copper wire. His works hang in the British Museum, the Metropolitan Museum of Art, and the Museum of Modern Art.
• Yinka Shonibare (Nigeria/UK) – Creates sculptures and installations using Dutch wax fabric (which is actually Indonesian, produced in the Netherlands, and sold in West Africa). His works explore colonialism, identity, and globalization.
• William Kentridge (South Africa) – Creates charcoal drawings, animations, and operas about apartheid, memory, and transformation. His works have been exhibited at the Museum of Modern Art, the Louvre, and the Venice Biennale.
• Julie Mehretu (Ethiopia/USA) – Creates large‑scale abstract paintings that layer architectural drawings, graffiti, and symbols. Her works sell for millions of dollars.
• Njideka Akunyili Crosby (Nigeria/USA) – Creates photo‑collages and paintings that explore the intersection of Nigerian and American culture. She won a MacArthur “Genius” Grant in 2017.
• Amoako Boafo (Ghana/Austria) – Creates vibrant portraits of Black figures using his fingers (not brushes). His works have sold for over $1 million.
• Ibrahim Mahama (Ghana) – Creates huge installations using jute sacks (used to transport cocoa, coffee, and other commodities). His works comment on labor, trade, and colonialism.

The African art market is booming. Auction houses (Christie’s, Sotheby’s, Bonhams) have dedicated African art sales. Art fairs (1‑54, Art X Lagos, Cape Town Art Fair) attract collectors from around the world.

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Part Four: The Political Landscape (2005–2026)

Democratic Transitions

The “third wave” of democratization continued into the 2000s and 2010s. Some countries made significant progress:

• Ghana – Ghana is a model of African democracy. It has held six free and fair elections (1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020, 2024). The power has alternated between the National Democratic Congress (NDC) and the New Patriotic Party (NPP). The 2024 election was peaceful and competitive.
• Nigeria – Nigeria’s democracy is messy, but it is durable. It has held six elections since the return to civilian rule (1999, 2003, 2007, 2011, 2015, 2019, 2023). The 2015 election was the first time an opposition candidate (Muhammadu Buhari) defeated an incumbent (Goodluck Jonathan). Jonathan accepted defeat. The 2023 election was won by Bola Tinubu , a former governor of Lagos State.
• Kenya – Kenya’s democracy is turbulent but resilient. It held elections in 2002 (peaceful), 2007 (violent), 2013 (peaceful), 2017 (disputed), and 2022 (peaceful). The 2007 election led to a civil war (over 1,000 killed). The International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecuted the leaders of the violence (Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto), but the cases collapsed. In 2022, William Ruto won the presidency.
• Zambia – Zambia held a peaceful election in 2021, defeating the incumbent (Edgar Lungu) and electing Hakainde Hichilema . Hichilema had been arrested (for treason) under the previous regime.
• Malawi – Malawi held a peaceful election in 2019, but the results were annulled by the Constitutional Court (because of widespread irregularities). A new election was held in 2020, and the opposition candidate (Lazarus Chakwera) won.
• Senegal – Senegal is a model of African democracy. It has never had a coup. It has held regular, peaceful elections. The 2024 election was won by Bassirou Diomaye Faye , a young opposition candidate.

The Long‑Serving Leaders

But many African leaders clung to power. They changed constitutions to remove term limits, suppressed the opposition, and rigged elections. The most notorious:

• Paul Kagame (Rwanda) – Has been president since 2000 (effective leader since 1994). He changed the constitution in 2015 to allow himself to run for a third term, and again in 2024 to allow himself to run for a fourth term. He is expected to stay in power until 2034.
• Yoweri Museveni (Uganda) – Has been president since 1986. He removed term limits in 2005. He has won every election since — with accusations of fraud.
• Teodoro Obiang (Equatorial Guinea) – Has been president since 1979 (the longest‑serving leader in Africa). He is one of the most brutal and corrupt dictators in the world.
• Paul Biya (Cameroon) – Has been president since 1982. He is 93 years old. He has won every election since — with accusations of fraud.
• Denis Sassou Nguesso (Congo‑Brazzaville) – Has been president since 1997 (and previously from 1979 to 1992). He changed the constitution in 2015 to allow himself to run again.
• Ismaïl Omar Guelleh (Djibouti) – Has been president since 1999. He changed the constitution to remove term limits.
• Emmerson Mnangagwa (Zimbabwe) – Has been president since 2017, after Robert Mugabe was overthrown. He has continued Mugabe’s repressive policies.

Popular Uprisings (2014–2021)

The people fought back. Inspired by the Arab Spring (2010–2012), Africans took to the streets to demand change. Some succeeded; most did not.

• Burkina Faso (2014) – President Blaise Compaoré (who had ruled since 1987) tried to change the constitution to allow himself to run again. The people protested. The army refused to fire on the protesters. Compaoré fled to Ivory Coast. A transitional government was formed. Elections were held in 2015. Roch Marc Christian Kaboré won. (He was later overthrown in a coup in 2022 – see below.)
• Sudan (2019) – President Omar al‑Bashir (who had ruled since 1989, and was wanted by the ICC for genocide in Darfur) was overthrown by the military after months of protests. A transitional government was formed. Civilian‑military relations were tense.
• Algeria (2019) – President Abdelaziz Bouteflika (who had ruled since 1999) tried to run for a fifth term. The people protested. The army forced him to resign. A transitional government was formed. Elections were held in 2019. Abdelmadjid Tebboune won.
• Zimbabwe (2017) – President Robert Mugabe (who had ruled since 1980) was overthrown by his own party (ZANU‑PF) and the military. He was replaced by Emmerson Mnangagwa . The protests did not lead to democracy; Mnangagwa has continued Mugabe’s repressive policies.
• Ethiopia (2018) – Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn resigned after years of protests. He was replaced by Abiy Ahmed , who promised reforms. Abiy won the Nobel Peace Prize (2019) for making peace with Eritrea. But Abiy later launched a brutal war in Tigray (see Part Six).

The Coup Belt (2020–2025)

In the 2020s, a wave of military coups swept across the Sahel and West Africa. The coups were caused by the failure of civilian governments to stop jihadist insurgencies, the corruption of the elites, and the frustration of the young.

The coups:

• Mali (August 2020) – President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta was overthrown by Colonel Assimi Goïta . Goïta promised a quick return to civilian rule. He then staged a second coup (May 2021) to remove the civilian leaders. He is still in power.
• Chad (April 2021) – President Idriss Déby was killed fighting rebels. The military appointed his son, Mahamat Déby , as president — in violation of the constitution. Mahamat Déby is still in power.
• Guinea (September 2021) – President Alpha Condé (who had changed the constitution to run for a third term) was overthrown by Colonel Mamady Doumbouya . Doumbouya is still in power.
• Burkina Faso (January 2022) – President Roch Marc Christian Kaboré was overthrown by Lieutenant Colonel Paul‑Henri Sandaogo Damiba . Damiba was then overthrown (September 2022) by Captain Ibrahim Traoré . Traoré is still in power.
• Niger (July 2023) – President Mohamed Bazoum (democratically elected) was overthrown by General Abdourahamane Tchiani . The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) threatened military intervention, but the threat was not carried out. Tchiani is still in power.
• Gabon (August 2023) – President Ali Bongo (who had ruled since 2009, and whose father had ruled since 1967) was overthrown by General Brice Oligui Nguema . Nguema is still in power.

The coups were condemned by the African Union, the United Nations, and the Western powers. But the coup leaders were popular: they promised to end corruption and to fight the jihadists. The people were tired of the old elites.

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Part Five: The New Scramble for Africa – China and the West (2000–2026)

China in Africa

China’s engagement with Africa is not new. China has had diplomatic relations with African countries since the 1950s (the Bandung Conference, 1955). China built the Tanzania‑Zambia Railway (TAZARA) in the 1970s, as a symbol of South‑South cooperation.

But China’s engagement exploded in the 2000s. China needed resources (oil, gas, copper, cobalt, iron ore, timber, agricultural products) for its industrial revolution. Africa had them. China also needed markets for its manufactured goods. Africa needed cheap imports.

China’s engagement took several forms:

Trade . China‑Africa trade grew from $10 billion in 2000 to $200 billion in 2014, and to $300 billion in 2023. China is now Africa’s largest trading partner (ahead of the European Union and the United States). China imports mostly raw materials; Africa imports mostly manufactured goods.

Investment . Chinese companies invested in African infrastructure: ports, railways, roads, bridges, power plants, and telecommunications. The most famous project is the Mombasa‑Nairobi Standard Gauge Railway (Kenya, 2014–2017), built by the China Road and Bridge Corporation (CRBC). The railway cost $3.2 billion, financed by a loan from the Export‑Import Bank of China.

Loans . China lent billions of dollars to African governments. The loans were often tied to Chinese companies (the Chinese company would build the project, and the loan would be repaid by the African government). The loans were also often secured by future resource exports (oil, copper, cobalt). By 2020, Africa owed China about $150 billion .

Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) . China’s BRI (launched in 2013) is a global infrastructure and investment project. It includes Africa. The BRI has funded ports (Djibouti, Mombasa, Bagamoyo, Abidjan), railways (Mombasa‑Nairobi, Addis Ababa‑Djibouti), and industrial parks (Ethiopia, Kenya, Egypt).

Aid and technical assistance . China provides aid to African countries: scholarships for African students to study in China, medical teams, agricultural experts, and debt relief (for the poorest countries).

Military cooperation . China has a military base in Djibouti (its first overseas base). It also sells weapons to African governments (including to repressive regimes).

The Debate over Chinese Neo‑colonialism

China’s engagement is controversial. Critics call it neo‑colonialism . They argue that:

• China is extracting Africa’s resources without adding value (the raw materials are shipped to China; the manufactured goods are sold back to Africa).
• China’s loans are opaque, expensive, and unsustainable. Many African countries are now in debt distress because of Chinese loans.
• China’s projects are built by Chinese workers, not Africans. The jobs and the profits go to China.
• China’s companies ignore labor rights, environmental standards, and human rights. They pay bribes, use forced labor, and destroy forests.
• China’s government supports repressive regimes (Sudan, Zimbabwe, Equatorial Guinea) and ignores corruption.

Supporters of China’s engagement argue that:

• China is providing infrastructure that Africa desperately needs — infrastructure that the West refused to build.
• China’s loans are cheaper than Western loans (though the terms are often less transparent).
• China’s projects create jobs for Africans (though not as many as they could).
• China does not impose conditions on African governments (democracy, human rights, good governance). The West’s conditions have often been hypocritical and self‑serving.
• China offers an alternative to the Western‑dominated global order. Africa should be free to choose its partners.

The debate is not settled. What is clear is that China is now a permanent player in Africa. Africa’s future will be shaped by its relationship with China — for better or for worse.

The Western Reaction

The West (the United States, the European Union, the United Kingdom, France) has reacted to China’s rise in Africa with a mixture of alarm and competition.

The United States launched the Prosper Africa initiative (2018) to promote trade and investment. It also created the International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to provide loans and guarantees. But US engagement has been limited.

The European Union launched the Global Gateway (2021) to compete with the BRI. It promised €300 billion in infrastructure investment by 2027. But the funding has been slow to materialize.

France has tried to maintain its influence in its former colonies (Françafrique). But France’s influence has waned. The coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger (2020–2023) were partly motivated by anti‑French sentiment. The new military rulers expelled French troops and turned to Russia (the Wagner Group, now called Africa Corps) for security.

Russia, under Vladimir Putin , has also expanded its influence in Africa. The Wagner Group (a private military company) is active in the Central African Republic, Mali, Burkina Faso, Sudan, Libya, and Mozambique. Russia provides security, propaganda, and disinformation — in exchange for access to gold, diamonds, and other resources.

Africa is now a contested space. The new scramble for Africa is not only about resources; it is also about influence, ideology, and global order.

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Part Six: The Ongoing Conflicts (2005–2026)

Boko Haram and the Lake Chad Basin

Boko Haram (meaning “Western education is forbidden” in Hausa) is a jihadist group based in northeastern Nigeria. It was founded in 2002 by Mohammed Yusuf (1970–2009). Yusuf preached against Western education, democracy, and secularism. He called for the establishment of an Islamic state under Sharia law.

The Nigerian government killed Yusuf in 2009. His followers, led by Abubakar Shekau (c. 1965–2021), launched a brutal insurgency. Boko Haram attacked police stations, military bases, churches, mosques, schools, and markets. It also kidnapped hundreds of schoolgirls — the most famous being the Chibok girls (April 2014). About 276 girls were taken; 57 escaped; 107 were released (in exchange for prisoners); 112 are still missing.

Boko Haram also used child suicide bombers . The group controlled a large swath of northeastern Nigeria at its peak (2014–2015). The Nigerian army, with the help of neighboring countries (Chad, Niger, Cameroon, Benin), pushed Boko Haram back. But the insurgency continues. About 350,000 people have been killed. Over 2 million have been displaced.

In 2015, Boko Haram pledged allegiance to the Islamic State (ISIS). It became known as ISWAP (Islamic State West Africa Province). A faction, led by Shekau, refused to accept ISIS’s authority. The two factions fought each other. Shekau was killed in 2021. ISWAP is now the dominant faction.

Boko Haram is not only a Nigerian problem. It has spread to Chad, Niger, and Cameroon. The Lake Chad Basin is now one of the most insecure regions in the world.

The Sahel Jihadism

The Sahel (the semi‑arid belt south of the Sahara) has also become a hotbed of jihadism. The groups include:

• Al‑Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) – active in Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mauritania.
• Jama’at Nasr al‑Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) – an AQIM affiliate, active in the Sahel.
• Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) – an ISIS affiliate, active in the Sahel.
• Ansar Dine – a Tuareg jihadist group, active in Mali.
• Macina Liberation Front – a Fulani jihadist group, active in Mali and Burkina Faso.

The Sahel jihadists have exploited the weakness of the states (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger) and the grievances of the local populations (marginalization, poverty, lack of services). They have also exploited the Tuareg rebellions (Mali, Niger) and the Fulani herder‑farmer conflicts (Burkina Faso, Mali, Nigeria).

The French military intervened in Mali (Operation Serval, 2013; Operation Barkhane, 2014–2022). The French killed many jihadists, but they could not eliminate them. The French were also accused of human rights abuses (extrajudicial killings, drone strikes on weddings). The French withdrew from Mali (2022), Burkina Faso (2023), and Niger (2023) after the coups.

The United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) was withdrawn in 2023, after the Malian junta demanded its departure.

The Sahel is now a vacuum. The new military rulers have turned to Russia (the Wagner Group) for security. The Wagner Group is not effective; it is brutal and corrupt. The jihadists have expanded their control.

The Eastern Congo

The eastern Congo (North Kivu, South Kivu, Ituri) has never known peace. The Second Congo War (1998–2003) ended, but the violence continued. The rebel groups include:

• FDLR (Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda) – Hutu militias who fled after the Rwandan genocide (1994). They are still active in the eastern Congo.
• CNDP (National Congress for the Defence of the People) – a Tutsi rebel group led by Laurent Nkunda (1967–). Nkunda was arrested in 2009, but the CNDP’s remnants formed the M23 .
• M23 (March 23 Movement) – a Tutsi rebel group that captured the city of Goma (2012). The M23 was defeated by the Congolese army and the UN peacekeepers (2013). But it re‑emerged in 2021, with the support of Rwanda. The M23 now controls large parts of North Kivu.
• ADF (Allied Democratic Forces) – a Ugandan Islamist group, active in North Kivu and Ituri. The ADF has pledged allegiance to ISIS.
• CODECO (Cooperative for the Development of the Congo) – a Lendu militia, active in Ituri. CODECO has massacred thousands of Hema civilians.

The Congolese army (FARDC) is weak, corrupt, and abusive. The UN peacekeeping mission (MONUSCO) has been in the Congo since 1999. It has not stopped the violence. MONUSCO is being withdrawn (2024–2026).

The eastern Congo is a humanitarian catastrophe. About 6 million people have died (from violence, disease, and starvation) since 1996. About 5 million are displaced. The violence is fueled by the Congo’s mineral wealth (coltan, cobalt, gold, tin). The rebels, the army, and the multinational companies all profit.

The Tigray War (Ethiopia, 2020–2022)

The Tigray War was a civil war between the Ethiopian government (led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed ) and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) , which had dominated Ethiopian politics for decades.

The war began in November 2020, when Abiy sent federal troops to Tigray to arrest the TPLF leaders. The TPLF fought back. The war was brutal. Both sides committed atrocities: mass killings, gang rapes, forced starvation, destruction of hospitals and schools. About 500,000 to 1 million people died. About 5 million were displaced.

The war ended in November 2022, with a peace agreement (the Pretoria Agreement , mediated by the African Union). The TPLF agreed to disarm. The Ethiopian government agreed to allow humanitarian aid. The Eritrean army (which had allied with Ethiopia) withdrew.

The Tigray War was a catastrophe. It also exposed the limits of Abiy Ahmed’s leadership. Abiy had won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for making peace with Eritrea. He was now accused of genocide.

The Sudan Crisis (2023–)

Sudan has been in crisis since the Sudanese revolution (2019) overthrew Omar al‑Bashir. The transitional government was fragile. In October 2021, the military seized power in a coup. The military was divided between two factions: the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) (led by General Abdel Fattah al‑Burhan ) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) (led by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo , known as “Hemedti”).

In April 2023, the two factions went to war. The fighting has been brutal. Both sides have committed atrocities: mass killings, gang rapes, ethnic cleansing, and looting. The capital, Khartoum, has been destroyed. About 150,000 people have been killed. About 10 million have been displaced (the largest displacement crisis in the world).

The war has also reignited the conflict in Darfur (where the RSF was born). The RSF is ethnically cleansing the Masalit and other non‑Arab groups.

The African Union and the United Nations have tried to mediate, but they have failed. The war continues.

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Part Seven: The Challenges of the Future (2020–2026)

Climate Change

Africa is the continent most vulnerable to climate change, even though it has contributed the least to global emissions (about 4 percent). The impacts include:

• Droughts – The Horn of Africa (Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya) has experienced its worst drought in 40 years (2020–2023). About 20 million people faced starvation.
• Floods – West Africa (Nigeria, Niger, Benin, Togo, Ghana, Ivory Coast) has experienced catastrophic floods (2022, 2024). Hundreds died; millions were displaced.
• Cyclones – Southern Africa (Mozambique, Madagascar, Malawi, Zimbabwe) has been hit by cyclones (Idai, 2019; Freddy, 2023). Thousands died; millions were displaced.
• Desertification – The Sahel is expanding southward, turning farmland into desert. The herder‑farmer conflicts are exacerbated by climate change.
• Sea‑level rise – Coastal cities (Lagos, Accra, Cotonou, Lomé, Dakar, Maputo, Alexandria) are threatened by rising seas. Lagos (the largest city in Africa, with over 20 million people) could be underwater by the end of the century.

African countries are demanding climate justice : the rich countries (which caused the problem) should pay for the adaptation and mitigation in poor countries. At the COP28 climate summit (Dubai, 2023), a Loss and Damage Fund was created. But the fund is small, and the money is slow to arrive.

The Youth Bulge

Africa is the youngest continent in the world. About 60 percent of the population is under 25. By 2050, Africa will have the largest working‑age population in the world (about 1.5 billion people).

The youth bulge is a demographic dividend — if the young people are educated, healthy, and employed. But many African youth are not. They are unemployed, underemployed, or working in the informal sector. They are frustrated. They are angry. They are susceptible to extremism, crime, and migration.

The “Japa” phenomenon (from the Yoruba word for “to flee”) refers to the mass migration of young Nigerians (and other Africans) to Europe, North America, and the Gulf states. The Japa syndrome is a brain drain: Africa is losing its best and brightest.

The youth bulge is also a political challenge. The young are demanding change. They are protesting. They are voting (if they are allowed to). They are using social media to organize. The old leaders are not listening.

The Debt Crisis (Revisited)

The debt crisis is not over. It is getting worse. The COVID‑19 pandemic (2020–2022) forced African governments to borrow more. The Russian invasion of Ukraine (2022) drove up food and fuel prices. The interest rate hikes in the West made debt payments more expensive.

By 2026, about 20 African countries are in debt distress (according to the IMF). Zambia defaulted in 2020; Ethiopia defaulted in 2023; Ghana defaulted in 2024; Kenya is on the brink. The Common Framework for debt restructuring is not working. China is reluctant to participate. The private creditors (hedge funds, bondholders) are demanding full payment.

The debt crisis is a development crisis. The money that should be spent on health, education, and infrastructure is being spent on debt payments. The children are not learning. The sick are not healing. The roads are not being built.

The COVID‑19 Pandemic (2020–2022)

The COVID‑19 pandemic was a global catastrophe. Africa was initially spared the worst of the health impacts (fewer deaths than Europe or the Americas), because of its young population, its low population density (outside the cities), and its experience with infectious diseases (Ebola, HIV/AIDS, malaria). But the economic impacts were severe: lockdowns closed businesses, disrupted supply chains, and reduced tourism. About 30 million Africans fell into poverty.

The pandemic also exposed the weakness of African health systems. The hospitals were underfunded, understaffed, and undersupplied. The vaccines were hoarded by the rich countries. Africa received the vaccines late (through COVAX, the global vaccine sharing facility). By the end of 2022, only about 50 percent of Africans were fully vaccinated (compared to 80 percent in Europe and North America).

The pandemic also accelerated the digital transformation (remote work, online education, e‑commerce). And it accelerated the debt crisis.

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Part Eight: Africa in 2126 – One Hundred Years of Imagination

The future is not written. But we can imagine.

Scenario 1: The Optimistic Vision

By 2126, Africa has transformed. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) has created a single market of 2 billion people (the largest in the world). The economies have diversified: Africa now manufactures its own goods, processes its own raw materials, and exports services (finance, tech, education, health, tourism). The green transition has powered Africa’s growth: solar, wind, hydro, and geothermal energy provide cheap, clean power. The demographic dividend has been realized: the young are educated, healthy, and employed. The African Union has become a true federation, with a common currency, a common army, and a common foreign policy. The brain drain has reversed: Africans are returning from Europe and America to build their own countries. The Rwandan genocide , the Congo wars , the Liberian and Sierra Leone civil wars — these are distant memories, studied in history books. Africa is a prosperous, peaceful, democratic continent — a model for the world.

Scenario 2: The Pessimistic Vision

By 2126, Africa has collapsed. The climate crisis has made large parts of the continent uninhabitable: the Sahel is a desert; the coastal cities are underwater; the droughts and floods are constant. The population has not stabilized: Africa has 3 billion people, and they are hungry, thirsty, and angry. The wars have multiplied: the water wars, the land wars, the ethnic wars, the resource wars. The states have failed: there are no governments, no laws, no services. The African Union has dissolved. The migrants are flooding into Europe, causing a backlash of fascism and xenophobia. The rich countries have built walls around themselves, leaving Africa to its fate. Africa is a hell — a warning to the world.

Scenario 3: The Realistic Vision

The truth is somewhere in between. Africa will not be a paradise in 2126. It will not be a hell. It will be a complex, contradictory, messy place — like everywhere else. There will be successes (Ghana, Rwanda, Botswana) and failures (Somalia, South Sudan, the Sahel). There will be growth and stagnation, peace and conflict, democracy and dictatorship, prosperity and poverty. The continent will be shaped by forces beyond its control (climate change, global markets, great power rivalries) and by forces within its control (governance, education, investment, culture). The future of Africa is not determined. It is being made — every day — by the 1.5 billion people who call it home.

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Appendices for Volume VII

Timeline of Volume VII (2005–2026)

Date	Event
2005	Ellen Johnson Sirleaf elected president of Liberia (first woman head of state in Africa).
2005	Make Poverty History campaign – G8 summit in Gleneagles, Scotland.
2007	M‑Pesa launched in Kenya.
2010	First African World Cup (South Africa).
2011	South Sudan becomes independent (July 9).
2013	M23 defeated in Congo.
2014	Chibok girls kidnapped by Boko Haram (Nigeria).
2014	Burkina Faso uprising – Blaise Compaoré overthrown.
2015	Boko Haram pledges allegiance to ISIS.
2015	Muhammadu Buhari elected president of Nigeria (first opposition candidate to defeat an incumbent).
2017	Robert Mugabe overthrown in Zimbabwe.
2019	Sudanese revolution – Omar al‑Bashir overthrown.
2019	Abiy Ahmed (Ethiopia) wins Nobel Peace Prize.
2020	COVID‑19 pandemic reaches Africa.
2020	Tigray War begins (Ethiopia).
2021	African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) launched.
2022	Tigray War ends (Pretoria Agreement).
2022	France withdraws from Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger.
2023	Coup in Niger. Coup in Gabon.
2023	Sudan civil war begins (SAF vs. RSF).
2024	M23 re‑emerges in eastern Congo.
2025	MONUSCO (UN peacekeeping mission) withdraws from Congo.
2026	Present year.

Glossary of Volume VII Key Terms

AfCFTA – African Continental Free Trade Area, launched in 2021, creating the largest free trade zone by population in the world.

Afrobeats – A contemporary African music genre, blending West African and global styles, popularized by Burna Boy, Wizkid, Davido, and others.

Amapiano – A South African house‑music subgenre, popularized by artists like Kabza De Small and DJ Maphorisa.

Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) – China’s global infrastructure and investment project, which includes Africa.

Boko Haram – A jihadist group based in northeastern Nigeria, meaning “Western education is forbidden” in Hausa.

Chibok girls – 276 schoolgirls kidnapped by Boko Haram in Chibok, Nigeria (April 2014). 57 escaped; 107 were released; 112 are still missing.

CODECO – A Lendu militia in Ituri (eastern Congo), known for massacres of Hema civilians.

Common Framework – A G20 initiative to restructure debts of poor countries, created in 2020. It has been ineffective.

Coup belt – The Sahel and West Africa, which experienced a wave of military coups in the 2020s (Mali, Chad, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Niger, Gabon).

Debt distress – A situation in which a country cannot pay its debts. About 20 African countries are in debt distress in 2026.

FDLR – Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda, a Hutu militia in the eastern Congo, composed of remnants of the Interahamwe and the former Rwandan army.

Gacaca – A traditional Rwandan justice system, adapted to deal with genocide suspects. The word means “grass” (because the courts were held on a grassy field).

ISWAP – Islamic State West Africa Province, the faction of Boko Haram that pledged allegiance to ISIS.

Japa – A Yoruba word meaning “to flee.” It refers to the mass migration of young Nigerians (and other Africans) to Europe, North America, and the Gulf states.

JNIM – Jama’at Nasr al‑Islam wal Muslimin, an Al‑Qaeda affiliate in the Sahel.

Loss and Damage Fund – A fund created at COP28 (2023) to compensate poor countries for the impacts of climate change.

M23 – A Tutsi rebel group in the eastern Congo, supported by Rwanda.

M‑Pesa – A mobile money system launched in Kenya (2007), allowing users to send, receive, and store money using their mobile phones.

Nollywood – The Nigerian film industry, the second largest in the world by volume.

Prosper Africa – A US initiative (2018) to promote trade and investment in Africa.

Rapid Support Forces (RSF) – A Sudanese paramilitary group, led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (“Hemedti”), fighting the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) in the Sudan civil war (2023–).

Silicon Lagoon – The tech hub in Lagos, Nigeria.

Silicon Savannah – The tech hub in Nairobi, Kenya.

Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) – The regular army of Sudan, led by Abdel Fattah al‑Burhan, fighting the RSF in the Sudan civil war.

Wagner Group – A Russian private military company, active in the Central African Republic, Mali, Burkina Faso, Sudan, Libya, and Mozambique. Now called Africa Corps.

Biographical Sketches (Volume VII)

Bola Tinubu (1952–, Nigeria) – President of Nigeria since 2023. He was a former governor of Lagos State (1999–2007) and a political “godfather.” He won the 2023 election, despite accusations of fraud.

William Ruto (1966–, Kenya) – President of Kenya since 2022. He was the deputy president (2013–2022) under Uhuru Kenyatta. He fell out with Kenyatta and won the 2022 election.

Hakainde Hichilema (1962–, Zambia) – President of Zambia since 2021. He is a businessman and the leader of the United Party for National Development (UPND). He was arrested (for treason) under the previous regime.

Abiy Ahmed (1976–, Ethiopia) – Prime Minister of Ethiopia since 2018. He won the Nobel Peace Prize (2019) for making peace with Eritrea. He launched the Tigray War (2020–2022), which killed hundreds of thousands.

Paul Kagame (1957–, Rwanda) – President of Rwanda since 2000. He has been praised for rebuilding Rwanda’s economy and criticized for suppressing political opposition. He changed the constitution to allow himself to stay in power until 2034.

Yoweri Museveni (1944–, Uganda) – President of Uganda since 1986. He was once praised as a “new breed” of African leader; he is now criticized for clinging to power and for supporting rebels in the Congo.

Assimi Goïta (1983–, Mali) – Colonel who led the coups in Mali (August 2020, May 2021). He is the interim president of Mali.

Ibrahim Traoré (1988–, Burkina Faso) – Captain who led the coup in Burkina Faso (September 2022). He is the interim president of Burkina Faso.

Abdourahamane Tchiani (1960–, Niger) – General who led the coup in Niger (July 2023). He is the interim president of Niger.

Burna Boy (1991–, Nigeria) – Afrobeats superstar, winner of a Grammy Award (2021, 2023). He has sold out Madison Square Garden and the O2 Arena. His albums include African Giant (2019) and Twice as Tall (2020).

Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie (1977–, Nigeria) – The most famous African writer of her generation. Her works include Half of a Yellow Sun (2006), Americanah (2013), and We Should All Be Feminists (2014).

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Afterword to Volume VII

Volume VII has covered the Africa Rising era (2005–2026). We have seen the economic boom , the technological leapfrog , the creative renaissance , the political struggles , the new scramble for Africa , and the ongoing conflicts . We have also seen the challenges of the future : climate change, the youth bulge, the debt crisis, and the pandemic.

Volume VIII will cover the African diaspora : the Americas, the Caribbean, Europe, and the world.

End of Volume VII: Africa Rising – Economic Growth, Technology, and Cultural Renaissance (2005–2026)

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