Trump will never help India get a permanent seat in the UNSC

Trump’s Election Impact on U.S.-India Relations

Indian people and Modi supporters are reading and expecting too much from Donald Trump’s election victory. Trump may have a good rapport with the Modi government on a personal level, but foreign policy is unlikely to take a U-turn in his second presidency. This time, Trump seems focused on restoring America’s lost glory. However, the benchmark for an American golden age—especially post-World War II and following the dissolution of the USSR—remains unclear.

While it’s evident that Joe Biden was perceived as a weaker president, potentially influenced by unknown entities, the Indo-U.S. relationship will not change dramatically overnight. Strategically, India deserves a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council; if the Trump administration does not support this ambition, India may struggle to receive the attention and respect it deserves in the global power dynamics.

The election of Donald Trump has had several implications for U.S.-India relations, bringing both benefits and challenges to the partnership between the two nations. One significant aspect was the strengthening of defense ties, with increased military cooperation and joint exercises, reflecting a shared interest in countering regional security threats. In addition, there was a focus on enhancing economic collaboration, as both nations sought to bolster trade and investment, paving the way for greater business opportunities for Indian companies in the American market.

Furthermore, Trump’s administration showed support for India’s role in international forums, fostering a conducive environment for India’s aspirations as a global player. Through initiatives like the Quad, which involves Australia, Japan, and the U.S., there was an opportunity for India to engage with major powers in promoting a free and open Indo-Pacific region, aligning with India’s strategic interests and enhancing its geopolitical influence.

Here are some of how Trump’s presidency brought potential benefits to India:

1. Stronger Defense and Security Ties

• Defense Cooperation: The Trump administration prioritized defense cooperation with India as a counterbalance to China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific. Key defense agreements were signed, including the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA), which enhances geospatial intelligence sharing.
• Designation as a Major Defense Partner: Trump designated India as a “Major Defense Partner,” a rare status that increased defense trade and technology-sharing between the two nations.
• Indo-Pacific Strategy: Under Trump, the U.S. firmly embraced the “Indo-Pacific” framework, seeing India as a central player in balancing China’s influence. The Quad (a strategic forum involving the U.S., India, Japan, and Australia) gained more prominence, leading to deeper security cooperation.

2. Support for India’s Position on Pakistan and Terrorism

• Pressure on Pakistan: Trump applied greater pressure on Pakistan to take action against terrorist groups operating within its borders. This aligned with India’s goal to reduce cross-border terrorism and isolate Pakistan internationally.
• Recognition of Terrorism Concerns: Trump was vocal about condemning terrorism, which resonated with India’s position on combating groups that target India. This alignment bolstered India’s diplomatic efforts to highlight security concerns on global platforms.

3. Economic and Trade Engagement

• Expanding Trade Relations: Although there were trade disputes, Trump sought to improve trade ties with India. Bilateral trade saw significant growth, surpassing $150 billion. India’s export sectors, including IT and pharmaceuticals, benefited from this increased trade.
• Shift in Supply Chains: Trump’s trade policies, particularly his tougher stance on China, led many companies to diversify their supply chains away from China. This trend opened opportunities for India to attract investments as an alternative manufacturing hub, supporting initiatives like “Make in India.”

4. Indian-American Relations and Diaspora Support

• Warm Relations with Indian-American Community: Trump made efforts to engage with the Indian diaspora, evident in events like “Howdy, Modi!” and “Namaste Trump.” This engagement reflected strong ties and mutual respect, boosting India-U.S. relations and encouraging the diaspora to further U.S.-India collaboration.
• Immigration Policies: While Trump’s immigration policies were restrictive overall, he recognized the value of skilled Indian workers. Although the administration was strict on H-1B visas, there were efforts to protect the interests of highly skilled Indian immigrants, particularly in the tech sector.

5. Focus on Shared Values and Democracy

• Common Democratic Values: Trump and Modi’s leadership emphasized nationalism and a shared commitment to sovereignty, which brought the two countries closer. The U.S. showed strong support for India’s democratic framework and strategic autonomy, strengthening mutual respect.

6. Closer Energy Cooperation

• Increased Energy Exports: Under Trump, the U.S. increased energy exports to India, becoming a key supplier of oil and natural gas. This allowed India to diversify its energy sources and reduce dependency on the Middle East.
• Nuclear Cooperation: The two countries continued their cooperation on civil nuclear energy, with the U.S. supplying advanced technology and materials that aligned with India’s energy and environmental goals.

7. Technology and Space Collaboration

• Increased Tech Partnership: The Trump administration encouraged deeper technology collaboration with India. This included cybersecurity and 5G technology, where the U.S. saw India as a partner in countering Chinese telecom giant Huawei.
• Space Cooperation: Trump’s vision for space exploration extended to cooperation with India on various space technology initiatives, fostering joint research and innovation.

Donald Trump expressed support for a stronger role for India in international institutions, but during his presidency, he did not take specific steps to help India secure a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). The question of India’s permanent seat on the UNSC involves complex international politics, and here’s how Trump’s position affected India’s bid:

1. General Support for India’s Role in the UN

• Public Statements of Support: Trump, along with other U.S. leaders, acknowledged India’s importance as a global power and expressed verbal support for India’s inclusion in decision-making at international organizations like the UN. This rhetorical support aligns with India’s long-standing bid for a permanent UNSC seat.
• G4 Countries’ Advocacy: The U.S. has supported India’s active participation in the G4 coalition, which includes Germany, Japan, Brazil, and India, all advocating for UNSC reforms and seeking permanent seats. Trump’s administration generally favored India’s aspirations but did not push these reforms forward in the UN itself.

2. Practical Challenges to Securing India’s UNSC Seat

• Veto Power and Global Opposition: The main obstacle to India’s permanent membership is not support from countries like the U.S. alone, but the opposition from other permanent UNSC members, especially China. China has consistently blocked India’s bid for a permanent seat, and it holds veto power. Trump’s administration did not engage deeply in negotiating with other permanent members (P5) to reach a consensus for reform.
• Complexity of UNSC Reform: Securing a permanent UNSC seat requires broad agreement among UN member states, especially the P5. UNSC reforms are slow-moving and require not only the support of the U.S. but also amendments to the UN Charter, which is difficult to achieve. Trump’s administration did not prioritize pushing for this complex process.

3. Counterbalancing China

• Strategic Partnership to Counter China: Trump did take steps to strengthen U.S.-India ties as part of a broader Indo-Pacific strategy to counterbalance China’s influence. This alignment indirectly supported India’s international standing, but it did not translate into direct efforts to secure India’s UNSC seat.
• Increased Quad Cooperation: The Trump administration’s support for the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) with India, Japan, and Australia reflected a strategic alignment, but this alliance was more focused on regional security than on pushing for global governance reforms like UNSC expansion.

4. Long-Term U.S. Position on India’s UNSC Bid

• The U.S., even before Trump, has expressed support for India’s candidacy for a permanent UNSC seat, but this support has mostly been rhetorical rather than operational. U.S. administrations often avoid directly pushing for UNSC reform because it requires significant negotiation and risks upsetting alliances with other permanent members.

5. What Would Be Needed for U.S. Support to Materialize?

• For the U.S. to help India secure a UNSC seat, a future administration would need to actively lobby the P5 members, address China’s opposition, and negotiate a consensus on reform. This would involve considerable diplomatic effort that goes beyond what Trump or previous U.S. presidents have undertaken.

Summary

The Trump administration’s alignment with India on defense, trade, and strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific bolstered India’s position globally and provided a counterbalance to China’s influence. The focus on defense cooperation, pressure on Pakistan regarding terrorism, and support for economic engagement marked areas of alignment that benefited India’s security, economic growth, and international standing. However, challenges like trade disputes and restrictive immigration policies also tested the relationship, although the overall trajectory of India-U.S. ties remained positive.

While Trump’s administration supported India’s leadership role globally, it did not make tangible moves toward securing a permanent UNSC seat for India. Achieving this goal requires coordinated international reform efforts and consensus-building among UNSC permanent members, especially overcoming China’s opposition. Future U.S. support could play a role, but achieving UNSC reform is a complex, long-term goal that goes beyond any single administration’s influence.

Date: 11/06/2024

Tanmoy Bhattacharyya

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